Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sassuolo win with a probability of 45.86%. A win for Genoa had a probability of 31.65% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sassuolo win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.45%) and 2-0 (5.96%). The likeliest Genoa win was 1-2 (7.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.72%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sassuolo would win this match.