Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 28

Apr 3, 2023 at 6.30pm UK

Stadio Carlo Castellani

Empoli
1 - 0
Lecce

Caputo (62' pen.)
Bandinelli (19'), Fazzini (71'), Marin (90+6')
Tonelli (90')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Blin (22'), Tuia (68')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Serie A clash between Empoli and Lecce, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Empoli

All competitions

Last Game: Atalanta 2-1 Empoli
Friday, March 17 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Lecce

All competitions

Last Game: Fiorentina 1-0 Lecce
Sunday, March 19 at 2pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Neither side is in top goalscoring form, but Empoli's decent-to-good record at the Castellani — they had gone five unbeaten until recent defeats by Napoli and Udinese — and Lecce's ongoing four-game run without scoring means the Azzurri should edge this one by the odd goal. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Empoli win with a probability of 40.26%. A win for Lecce had a probability of 32.86% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Empoli win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.49%) and 2-0 (7.23%). The likeliest Lecce win was 0-1 (9.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.76%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Empoli in this match.

Result
Empoli	Draw	Lecce
40.26% ( -1.66)	26.88% ( 0.16)	32.86% ( 1.51)

Both teams to score 50.83% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.73% (

-0.21)

54.27% (

0.21)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.34% (

-0.18)

75.66% (

0.18)

Empoli Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.55% (

-0.98)

26.45% (

0.98)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.38% (

-1.32)

61.62% (

1.32)

Lecce Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.1% (

0.93)

30.9% (

-0.93)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.81% (

1.07)

67.19% (

-1.07)

Score Analysis

Empoli 40.25%

Lecce 32.86%

Draw 26.87%

Empoli	Draw	Lecce
1-0 @ 10.86% ( -0.22) 2-1 @ 8.49% ( -0.19) 2-0 @ 7.23% ( -0.35) 3-1 @ 3.76% ( -0.19) 3-0 @ 3.2% ( -0.25) 3-2 @ 2.21% ( -0.06) 4-1 @ 1.25% ( -0.1) 4-0 @ 1.07% ( -0.12) Other @ 2.18% Total : 40.25%	1-1 @ 12.76% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 8.17% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 4.99% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.95% Total : 26.87%	0-1 @ 9.6% ( 0.32) 1-2 @ 7.5% ( 0.23) 0-2 @ 5.64% ( 0.32) 1-3 @ 2.94% ( 0.16) 0-3 @ 2.21% ( 0.18) 2-3 @ 1.95% ( 0.06) Other @ 3.04% Total : 32.86%