RKC Waalwijk welcome AZ Alkmaar to the Mandemakers Stadion on Wednesday with both teams vying for a spot in the semifinals of the KNVB Beker.
AZ saw off the challenge of Twente in the round of 16, while Waalwijk needed penalties to get the better of lower league opposition ADO Den Haag.
Match preview
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AZ Alkmaar claimed a fifth away win on the bounce courtesy of a 2-1 victory over PSV Eindhoven at the Philips Stadion on Saturday.
Pascal Jansen's men went a goal down in the 19th minute as Armando Obispo opened the scoring before they hit back through goals from Bruno Martins Indi and Jesper Karlsson.
The Cheeseheads are now unbeaten in their last 15 games across all competitions - a run that includes KNVB-Beker victories over Heracles and the earlier mentioned FC Twente - since losing to Feyenoord in November.
An opportunity to keep this good run of form going awaits against an opposing side with only one win in the last seven clashes involving the teams.
However, that solitary triumph did come in the most recent meeting back in August when Wednesday's hosts fell to a narrow 1-0 defeat.
Having not reached the last four of the Dutch Cup since 2019, the four-time winners will be keen to come out on top at full time in their hunt to end a nine-year drought in the competition.
Waalwijk were beaten for the first time since the turn of the year in a 3-1 loss to Willem II at the Konig Willem II Stadion on Sunday.
Joseph Oosting's men went into the interval with a mountain to climb following a Thijs Oosting brace and Jizz Hornkamp's strike in the first half before grabbing a consolation goal in the second period through Michiel Kramer.
RKC have only little time to dwell on that defeat as they prepare for what is set to be their toughest tie so far against a very capable opposing outfit.
Wednesday's visitors, who have never tasted success in this tournament, came closest back in the 2011 edition where they reached the semi-finals before bowing out to Ajax.
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Team News
Jelle Duin is AZ's only guaranteed absentee for the game as he continues to nurse a knee problem.
Zakaria Aboukhlal has returned from international duty and will be pushing for a start in this one after coming off the bench last time out.
Finn Stokkers and Jens Odgaard have scored a combined six goals in the competition so far and will be heavily relied upon to provide firepower in attack.
Goalkeeper Joel Pereira remains without an appearance since August, while 22-year-old David Min is yet to feature this term.
Dario van den Buijs is a huge doubt for this one after he was hauled off with an injury 26 minutes into his side's last outing.
RKC Waalwijk possible starting lineup:
Vaessen; Buttner, Meulensteen, Adewoye; Van der Venne, Azhil, Anita, Gaari; Odgaard, Kramer, Stokkers
AZ Alkmaar possible starting lineup:
Vindahl; Wijndal, Martins Indi, Chatzidiakos, Sugawara; Clasie, Midtsjo, De Wit; Karlsson, Pavlidis, Aboukhlal
We say: RKC Waalwijk 1-3 AZ Alkmaar
AZ are currently performing at the level we have come to expect and will fancy themselves to get the job done off the back of a huge win over PSV last time out. We are backing them to come out on top and ease into the last four.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 48.64%. A win for RKC Waalwijk had a probability of 28.48% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.65%) and 0-2 (6.97%). The likeliest RKC Waalwijk win was 2-1 (6.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.31%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
