Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 48.64%. A win for RKC Waalwijk had a probability of 28.48% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.65%) and 0-2 (6.97%). The likeliest RKC Waalwijk win was 2-1 (6.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.31%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.