Real Salt Lake will open their Leagues Cup campaign on Thursday when they welcome Atlas to America First Field in Sandy, Utah.
Over the weekend, La Academia scored late to stun the Houston Dynamo 1-0, while Claret and Cobalt are coming off a 3-2 defeat to the Colorado Rapids in their previous MLS encounter.
Match preview
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An impressive season for Real Salt Lake has hit a bit of a snag in recent weeks, with this side on a three-match winless run in MLS.
As a result, their chances of winning the Supporters' Shield for the best record in the regular season are long, with Claret and Cobalt currently nine points behind Inter Miami in that race.
However, Pablo Mastroeni's men are well-positioned in the Western Conference table, sitting in third with 44 points, just six fewer than they managed a season ago.
Since the beginning of May, Salt Lake have suffered just one defeat at home in MLS (1-0 to the Los Angeles Galaxy), winning their other seven matches at America First Field by a combined score of 18-8.
It was a mixed bag of results for them at home in this competition last year, winning two games and scoring three goals in both triumphs but also losing 3-0 versus Monterrey in the group stage.
Two of their three victories in the Leagues Cup last year occurred when netting the opening goal, while they stormed back to defeat Club Leon 3-1 in their round of 32 clash despite conceding after only eight minutes.
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Patience and perseverance paid off for Atlas on Saturday as they got their Leagues Cup campaign off to a winning start.
Benat San Jose's men have won three consecutive matches in all competitions by a single goal and are unbeaten in their previous five competitive fixtures.
A win or draw on Thursday would guarantee them a place in the next phase of this tournament for the third time in three appearances.
In three previous Leagues Cup group fixtures, Atlas have never conceded a single goal, with all three of those victories being by a narrow 1-0 score.
Coming into this game, the club from Jalisco are on a four-match unbeaten run away from home across all competitions, winning their last two matches as the visitors by a single goal.
Los Rojinegros have won three of their four Leagues Cup affairs versus MLS opposition, with their only defeat being in the round of 32 last year against the New England Revolution on penalties.
Team News
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At the Rocky Mountain Cup last week, Real Salt Lake were without Alexandros Katranis due to a knock, while Erik Holt and Marcelo Silva were sidelined due to hamstring issues.
Pablo Ruiz and Kevin Bonilla are out for the season with a torn ACL and knee injury, respectively, while their leading goalscorer, Chicho Arango (17 goals), will be suspended for violating the Anti-Harassment Policy laid out by the league.
Andres Gomez had both of their goals in a losing effort versus Colorado, his 12th and 13th of the MLS regular season.
Atlas were without Brian Lozano in their opening match of this tournament as he is recovering from knee surgery, while Mauro Manotas was sidelined with an ACL injury.
Leonardo Flores may not return to the lineup for La Furia until September at the earliest as he is dealing with a leg injury.
Rivaldo Lozano came on for Luis Reyes with 15 minutes remaining against the Dynamo and fired home the winner seven minutes from the end as Camilo Vargas made seven stops for his third clean sheet in three Leagues Cup group appearances.
Real Salt Lake possible starting lineup:
Beavers; Brody, Glad, Vera, Oviedo; Ojeda, Eneli; A. Gomez, Crooks, Luna; Julio
Atlas possible starting lineup:
Vargas; Zaldivar, G. Aguirre, Mora, Reyes; Rocha, Rios; Murillo, Marquez, Fulgencio; E. Aguirre
We say: Real Salt Lake 0-1 Atlas
So much of the RSL attacking play filters through Arango, and not having him available could allow Atlas to play their stifling tactics, which have frustrated so many MLS sides at this tournament, allowing the Mexicans to eventually sneak a goal in.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Salt Lake win with a probability of 57.2%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Atlas had a probability of 21.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Salt Lake win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.64%) and 2-0 (8.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.87%), while for an Atlas win it was 1-2 (5.64%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Real Salt Lake in this match.
Joel Lefevre
