In a repeat of last year's Champions League playoff round encounter, Rangers and PSV Eindhoven reconvene for the right to enter the draw for the group stage, starting with Tuesday's first leg at Ibrox.
Michael Beale's men sent Servette packing to move one step closer to continental football in the autumn, while Sturm Graz were no match for their Dutch counterparts.
Match preview
© Reuters
PSV's hopes of Champions League group-stage qualification were dashed by Rangers at this point in the preliminary rounds last year, and Gers fans will no doubt be hoping that lightning can strike twice on the European landscape, but the manner of their two-legged success against Servette in round three was hardly convincing.
Beale's side travelled to Geneva boasting a slender 2-1 lead from their opening encounter, and Servette were on course to prolong the tie thanks to Dereck Kutesa's 22nd-minute opener, but Rangers rightly turned to their captain for second-half inspiration.
Having already made the net ripple from the penalty spot in the first leg, James Tavernier headed home the equalising goal just five minutes into the second period, thus confirming Rangers' progression via a 3-2 aggregate scoreline before Greenock Morton awaited them in the Scottish League Cup.
Once again, a much-changed Rangers outfit recovered from a one-goal deficit to come up trumps, as a frenzied 15-minute period in the second half saw Grant Gillespie open the scoring from 12 yards, but Cyriel Dessers's own spot kick and a Danilo strike turned the tide.
Now on the verge of back-to-back Champions League group-stage appearances for the first time since 2011, the Glasgow giants have only ever suffered one qualification elimination at the final hurdle - losing 3-0 over two legs to AEK Athens in 1994 - but Beale's men will be wary of a vengeful PSV.
© Reuters
Even with a seemingly unassailable 4-1 lead from the first leg of their third-round battle with Sturm Graz, Peter Bosz's men did not rest on their laurels during last week's Austrian sojourn, recovering from a 1-0 deficit to put another trio of strikes past their beleaguered foes.
A William Boving opener gave the Sturm Graz faithful faint hope of an improbable turnaround, but such optimism was quickly dashed by Joey Veerman and Luuk de Jong, before Ricardo Pepi came off the bench to cap off a 7-2 aggregate win for the Eindhoven powerhouses.
Four days on from that 3-1 beating, PSV posted an identical triumph over Vitesse in the Eredivisie to maintain their unblemished start to the campaign - although Bosz's side shipped the first goal again on that occasion - and they have assumed position at the top of their domestic table at the time of writing.
Also putting Feyenoord to the sword in the Dutch Super Cup earlier this month, PSV - who are not missing Ruud van Nistelrooy too much - head to Ibrox with a perfect record of five wins from five in 2023-24, and it is now 22 games without defeat for Bosz's men since their Europa League humbling versus perennial winners Sevilla in February.
The visitors were bumped down to the second tier of continental football courtesy of a 3-2 aggregate loss to Rangers in last year's Champions League playoff round, where the Gers held out for a 2-2 draw on home soil before silencing the Philips Stadion crowd through Antonio Colak's 60th-minute strike.
- L
- W
- W
- D
- W
- W
- W
- W
- W
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Rangers' Jose Cifuentes was a little worse for wear after the second leg against Servette, but the 24-year-old was fit enough to play the full 90 at the weekend, where Beale unsurprisingly handed starts to several fringe players.
Tavernier and Borna Barisic were among the notable names to miss out against Greenock Morton, but the full-back duo are primed to return this weekend, alongside Todd Cantwell, Ryan Jack and John Souttar.
The hosts are still coping without Ben Davies (illness) and Ridvan Yilmaz for the time being, while cruciate ligament victim Steve Davis remains on the long road to rehabilitation.
As far as PSV are concerned, left-back Mauro Junior is now eligible to play in Europe once more after serving a two-game continental suspension, but the 24-year-old is also nursing a knee problem and is unlikely to feature either way.
Bosz could therefore be facing an unwanted selection dilemma at left-back, as Patrick van Aanholt was forced off with an unspecified concern in the second half of Saturday's win over Vitesse, so right-back Shurandy Sambo may have to fill in on that flank.
Fellow defenders Armando Obispo and Fredrik Oppegard are missing too, and PSV are also sweating over the fitness of Noa Lang after the attacker missed the weekend's success with an unknown complaint.
Rangers possible starting lineup:
Butland; Tavernier, Souttar, Goldson, Barisic; Cifuentes, Jack, Cantwell; Sima, Danilo, Dessers
PSV Eindhoven possible starting lineup:
Benitez; Teze, Ramalho, Boscagli, Sambo; Veerman, Sangare; Bakayoko, Til, Vertessen; De Jong
We say: Rangers 1-1 PSV Eindhoven
Even if Rangers can break the deadlock in front of a bouncing Glasgow crowd, PSV are well-versed in coming from behind and have a significant psychological incentive to right the wrongs of last year.
We would back a fully-fit and goal-happy PSV squad to just about edge this encounter, but fresh fitness concerns may force Bosz's men to accept a draw against Rangers' well-rested big-hitters, which would still leave the Dutch giants in a strong position for their reunion in Eindhoven on August 30.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rangers win with a probability of 40.24%. A win for PSV Eindhoven had a probability of 35.64% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rangers win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.56%) and 2-0 (5.93%). The likeliest PSV Eindhoven win was 1-2 (8.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
