Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portimonense win with a probability of 47.44%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Belenenses had a probability of 25.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portimonense win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.5%) and 2-1 (8.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.72%), while for a Belenenses win it was 0-1 (9.21%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Portimonense in this match.