Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 59.35%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Belenenses had a probability of 17.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.95%) and 2-1 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.07%), while for a Belenenses win it was 0-1 (6.45%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood.