Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 43.92%. A win for Belenenses had a probability of 28.22% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.59%) and 1-2 (8.53%). The likeliest Belenenses win was 1-0 (9.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Moreirense in this match.