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Premier League | Gameweek 21
Jan 12, 2024 at 7.45pm UK
Turf Moor
Luton Town

Burnley
1 - 1
Luton

Amdouni (36')
Trafford (90+3')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Morris (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Premier League clash between Burnley and Luton Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Burnley

All competitions
Premier League
Last Game: Spurs 1-0 Burnley
Friday, January 5 at 8pm in FA Cup

Luton Town

All competitions
Premier League
Last Game: Luton 0-0 Bolton
Sunday, January 7 at 2pm in FA Cup

We said: Burnley 1-1 Luton Town

 Premier League matches between newly-promoted sides this season have averaged a whopping 4.3 goals per game, although if both sides' FA Cup showings are anything to go by, attacking sparks may not fly at Turf Moor. While we have faith in Burnley to avoid matching the unwanted home losing record, it is difficult to back Kompany's goal-shy troops to prevail with any real conviction, and a Luton side who have shown plenty of fight in recent top-flight fixtures can certainly hope for a point on Friday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burnley win with a probability of 47.59%. A win for Luton Town had a probability of 27.96% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Burnley win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.42%) and 2-0 (7.88%). The likeliest Luton Town win was 0-1 (7.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.52%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.

Result
BurnleyDrawLuton Town
47.59% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01) 24.45% (-0.00099999999999767 -0) 27.96% (0.0039999999999978 0)
Both teams to score 56.16% (0.0089999999999932 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.79% (0.009999999999998 0.01)46.21% (-0.012 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.49% (0.009999999999998 0.01)68.5% (-0.01100000000001 -0.01)
Burnley Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.49% (0.0019999999999953 0)19.5% (-0.0040000000000013 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.61% (0.0020000000000024 0)51.38% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01)
Luton Town Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.77% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)30.23% (-0.009999999999998 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.61% (0.011999999999993 0.01)66.39% (-0.013000000000005 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Burnley 47.59%
    Luton Town 27.96%
    Draw 24.44%
BurnleyDrawLuton Town
1-0 @ 9.64% (-0.0040000000000013 -0)
2-1 @ 9.42%
2-0 @ 7.88% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-1 @ 5.13%
3-0 @ 4.29% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
3-2 @ 3.07% (0.0010000000000003 0)
4-1 @ 2.1%
4-0 @ 1.75%
4-2 @ 1.26%
Other @ 3.05%
Total : 47.59%
1-1 @ 11.52% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 5.9% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-2 @ 5.64% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-3 @ 1.23% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 24.44%
0-1 @ 7.05% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
1-2 @ 6.9% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-2 @ 4.22%
1-3 @ 2.75% (0.0019999999999998 0)
2-3 @ 2.25% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-3 @ 1.68% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 3.11%
Total : 27.96%

How you voted: Burnley vs Luton

Burnley
41.7%
Draw
22.8%
Luton Town
35.6%
180
Head to Head
Oct 3, 2023 7.30pm
Gameweek 2
Luton
1-2
Burnley
Adebayo (84')
Brown (36'), Burke (59'), Nakamba (90+3'), Chong (90+2')
Foster (45+2'), Bruun Larsen (85')
Roberts (66'), Taylor (90+4')
> Match Report
Feb 18, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 33
Luton
0-1
Burnley
Barnes (78' pen.)
> Preview
Aug 6, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 2
Burnley
1-1
Luton
Brownhill (50')
Barnes (89'), Roberts (90+4')
Potts (5')
Morris (66')
> Preview
Mar 31, 2007 3pm
Burnley
0-0
Luton
Oct 31, 2006 3pm
Luton
0-2
Burnley
Gray (31', 36')
Foster (22'), Elliott (51')
Foster (73')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Liverpool119112161528
2Manchester CityMan City117222213923
3Chelsea115422113819
4Arsenal115421812619
5Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest115421510519
6Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton115421915419
7Fulham115331613318
8Newcastle UnitedNewcastle115331311218
9Aston Villa115331717018
10Tottenham HotspurSpurs1151523131016
11Brentford115152222016
12Bournemouth114341515015
13Manchester UnitedMan Utd114341212015
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham113351319-612
15Leicester CityLeicester112451421-710
16Everton112451017-710
17Ipswich TownIpswich111551222-108
18Crystal Palace11146815-77
19Wolverhampton WanderersWolves111371627-116
20Southampton11119721-144
> Premier League Full Table


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