Greek champions Olympiacos will seek to make the most of home advantage on Thursday evening, as they host Atalanta BC in the decisive second leg of their Europa League playoff round tie.
The teams reconvene at Stadio Georgios Karaiskakis after an unlikely double from defender Berat Djimsiti earned the Italian club a 2-1 victory in Bergamo, where an out-of-sorts La Dea fought back from behind.
Match preview
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In the ascendancy after Tiquinho fired past home goalkeeper Juan Musso early on in last week's first leg, Olympiacos ultimately came away with a one-goal deficit from their visit to Lombardy when - just after the hour mark - they conceded a couple of quickfire Atalanta goals.
The Greek giants have won just one of the 22 European ties in which they lost the first leg away from home, so therefore have it all to do in order to progress.
Making a joint-record ninth appearance in the Europa League's knockout phase, they are aiming to reach the last 16 for a fifth time - and for a third successive season. Despite dominating domestically, though, Olympiacos have never made it beyond that stage.
While the Erythrolefki qualified as Group D runners-up late last year, they have now lost four of their last five European games, but some scintillating form in the Super League should instil them with confidence ahead of Atalanta's arrival.
Crowned champions of Greece for a 46th time in last spring - finishing 26 points clear - Olympiacos are one of five reigning national title-holders involved in the playoff round, and under head coach Pedro Martins the Piraeus club are very much on course for their 47th title.
Sitting nine points clear of PAOK after Sunday's 1-0 win at Volos - though they had to wait until the 81st-minute for Mathieu Valbuena's matchwinning strike - they are heading towards completing the regular season unbeaten. However, on Thursday evening they will experience another step up in class.
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Though well-placed to reach the next round in Europe - a stage on which they have performed so well in recent years - Atalanta's 1-0 defeat to Fiorentina last weekend allowed Juventus to strengthen their grip on fourth spot in Serie A despite failing to win Friday's Derby della Mole.
Still sitting fifth in the standings, La Dea now lead Fiorentina only by two points - with the Rome clubs also not far behind - which will be a cause of concern for combustible coach Gian Piero Gasperini, who was sent off again at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
Certainly, the Nerazzurri face a dogfight to secure a fourth consecutive Champions League campaign for next season by way of a top-four finish, and a record of three draws and three losses from their last seven outings indicates they are struggling to cope without the presence of top scorer Duvan Zapata.
Eliminated from the Champions League group stage with six points from as many matches, the Bergamaschi are without an away win in four European road trips - despite scoring eight times in the process. Furthermore, they last tasted victory domestically in mid-January, during a barren spell including a Coppa Italia exit.
The club's previous Europa League appearance, back in 2018, ended in the last 32 with elimination by Borussia Dortmund, and current circumstances suggest they will have a tough time surpassing such a run some four years later.
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Team News
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Sent from the touchline due to dissent on Sunday, Gian Piero Gasperini - who subsequently boycotted media duties having seen a 'goal' controversially disallowed by the VAR - has several selection issues to resolve.
Atalanta will again be without Duvan Zapata, Aleksei Miranchuk and Jose Luis Palomino in Piraeus, while Zapata's deputy Luis Muriel missed out at the weekend and remains a doubt. In all, due to absences in Florence, La Dea's bench was three men short and featured a couple of inexperienced teenagers.
If Muriel cannot feature, then January signing Jeremie Boga would start up front for the away side, who are expected to bring Mario Pasalic and Joakim Maehle back into the XI after they began Sunday's Serie A game on the bench.
Meanwhile, Olympiacos will again begin with a back three helmed by veteran centre-back Sokratis Papastathopoulos. An ever-present during the competition so far, the former Milan defender played under Gasperini at Genoa over a decade ago. He will be joined by ex-Napoli man Kostas Manolas, who rejoined the club last month.
Pedro Martins still has winger Garry Rodrigues out injured, but is otherwise unaffected by absences this week.
Following his goal in the away leg, Brazilian forward Tiquinho is set to lead the line up front, while 2020 Europa League winner Tomas Vaclik starts in goal.
Olympiacos possible starting lineup:
Vaclik; Cisse, Manolas, Sokratis; Lala, A. Camara, Bouchalakis, Reabciuk; Onyekuru, Tiquinho, Masouras
Atalanta BC possible starting lineup:
Musso; Djimsiti, Demiral, Toloi; Maehle, De Roon, Freuler, Pezzella; Pasalic, Malinovskyi; Boga
We say: Olympiacos 2-2 Atalanta BC (Atalanta BC win 4-3 on aggregate)
Just weeks ago, Atalanta would be strong favourites to kill off this tie in Europe's second-tier tournament, but confidence has dipped in the camp and the perennial overachievers have lost direction since the turn of the year.
Even with some important men missing, the greater individual quality of their squad should see La Dea through against an Olympiacos side used to winning each week - but only by the narrowest of margins.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Olympiacos win with a probability of 41.69%. A win for Atalanta BC had a probability of 33.05% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Olympiacos win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.86%) and 2-0 (6.84%). The likeliest Atalanta BC win was 0-1 (8.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.93%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.
