New Zealand will bid to keep their hopes alive of reaching a third World Cup finals when they face Tahiti on Sunday.
Tahiti, meanwhile, are three games away from reaching their first World Cup, but they will know how difficult their task will be on Sunday against an in-form New Zealand side.
Match preview
© Reuters
New Zealand have failed to qualify for the last two World Cup finals, but they are now dreaming of reaching World Cup 2022 in Qatar after breezing through the group stage of Oceania qualifying.
Danny Hay's side got off to a positive start with a 1-0 victory over Papua New Guinea thanks to Ben Waine's 75th-minute winner before they thrashed Fiji 4-0 in their next fixture.
Chris Wood was the star of the show in the emphatic win over Fiji with the Newcastle United forward netting a brace, while Elijah Just and Clayton Lewis also got on the scoresheet to confirm their nation's passage into the last four.
Although their place in the semi-finals was already secured, New Zealand continued to find the net at will in their most recent outing, thumping New Caledonia 7-1.
That encounter resulted in two braces for Wood and Alex Grieve, and while their clinical nature has caught the eye, Hay will also be pleased that his side have also been defensively resilient in all of their group games.
As for Tahiti, they have reached the final four without winning a game due to their group being widely affected by COVID-19.
A raft of positive tests in the Vanuatu squad forced them to withdraw before taking to the field, while a COVID-19 outbreak in the Cook Island squad resulted in them withdrawing from qualifying after just one match.
Although their progress to the final four was effectively assured by default, Tahiti finally took to the pitch on Thursday to face fellow semi-finalists the Solomon Islands.
The encounter was level at half time after Tahiti's Alvin Tehau had cancelled out Raphael Le'ai's opener, however, Le'ai had not finished his work for the encounter, as the forward netted twice in the second half to wrap up his hat-trick, while condemning Tahiti to a 3-1 defeat.
Samuel Garcia's side have had little time to dwell on that defeat as they now turn their attention to a tough semi-final against a New Zealand side that are ranked 48 places higher than them.
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Team News
New Zealand rested a number of players in the final group fixture, with Hay making as many as nine changes for the 7-1 victory over New Caledonia.
Winston Reid was one of those rested for the final group match, but the experienced defender will return to the backline against Tahiti, while Wood will look to add to the four goals that he has scored in qualifying when he leads the line on Sunday.
With only one game under their belt, Tahiti may feel a little under-prepared, although with their players still fresh, Tahiti are expected to name an unchanged lineup for Sunday's contest despite suffering a defeat last time out.
After seeing his cousin score in the previous fixture, Tahiti's all-time top scorer Teaonui Tehau will be looking to find the net on Sunday as he bids to guide his country to a famous win.
New Zealand possible starting lineup:
Searle; De Vries, Smith, Reid, Pijnaker; Kirwan, Stamenic, Garbett; Just, Wood, Champness
Tahiti possible starting lineup:
Teamotuaitau; Barbe, Paama, Hapipi, A. Tehau; Li Fung Kuee, Keck, R. Tehau, Bourebare; T. Tehau, Kaspard
We say: New Zealand 4-0 Tahiti
New Zealand have so far demonstrated that they are a level above the rest of their competitors in Oceania qualifying, and we think that they will continue to dominate on Sunday when they come up against a Tahiti side who will feel under-prepared following a chaotic group stage.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New Zealand win with a probability of 52.7%. A win for Tahiti had a probability of 24.93% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a New Zealand win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.2%) and 2-0 (7.79%). The likeliest Tahiti win was 1-2 (6.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New Zealand would win this match.
