We said: Serbia 2-1 Slovenia
A rare home defeat for Serbia last time out may bring about even greater intensity from a talented squad on Sunday, and their individual quality in several key areas should see off the challenge of Group 4 underdogs Slovenia.
The visitors could be set for a challenging campaign in League B and may need to rely on accumulating points back in Ljubljana if they are to avoid relegation.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Serbia win with a probability of 53.85%. A draw had a probability of 27% and a win for Slovenia had a probability of 19.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Serbia win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.78%) and 2-1 (8.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.03%), while for a Slovenia win it was 0-1 (8.39%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Serbia would win this match.