Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Slovakia win with a probability of 42.8%. A win for Slovenia had a probability of 32.6% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Slovakia win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.62%) and 2-0 (6.74%). The likeliest Slovenia win was 1-2 (7.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.5%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.