We said: Greece 1-1 Finland
Both nations had garnered reputations of being quite defensively-minded in recent years, but Finland's results so far in 2024 suggest otherwise and Greece are now under new management.
National team attendances have not been fantastic for Greece of late, as less than 200 saw them beat New Zealand last November, so the notorious rapturous atmosphere may not be present to give the hosts an advantage in Jovanovic's first game in charge.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Greece win with a probability of 65.56%. A draw had a probability of 19.8% and a win for Finland had a probability of 14.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Greece win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.61%) and 2-1 (9.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.36%), while for a Finland win it was 0-1 (4.45%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Greece would win this match.