After failing to find the net on Monday, Germany will be keen to rediscover their groove in the final third in their last match before kicking off Euro 2024. Boasting a full squad, Nagelsmann may be tempted to tinker with his selection in a few positions, but whichever lineup that he selects should be strong enough to come out on top against a Greece side who have both lost and not scored in three of their last four away games. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Germany win with a probability of 42.07%. A win for Greece had a probability of 32.69% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Germany win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.9%) and 2-0 (6.92%). The likeliest Greece win was 0-1 (7.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Germany would win this match.

Result
Germany	Draw	Greece
42.07% ( -0.07)	25.24% ( -0.01)	32.69% ( 0.08)

Both teams to score 56.09% (

0.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.53% (

0.06)

47.47% (

-0.06)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.32% (

0.05)

69.68% (

-0.06)

Germany Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.52% (

-0.01)

22.48% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.96% (

-0.01)

56.04% (

0.01)

Greece Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.36% (

0.08)

27.64% (

-0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.82% (

0.1)

63.19% (

-0.1)

Score Analysis

Germany 42.07%

Greece 32.69%

Draw 25.24%

Germany	Draw	Greece
1-0 @ 9.28% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 8.9% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 6.92% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 4.43% ( -0) 3-0 @ 3.44% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.85% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.65% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.29% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.06% ( 0) Other @ 2.26% Total : 42.07%	1-1 @ 11.92% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.22% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.72% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.22% ( 0) Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.24%	0-1 @ 7.99% ( -0) 1-2 @ 7.67% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 5.14% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 3.29% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.45% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 2.2% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 1.06% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.89% Total : 32.69%