Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 53.93%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Hartlepool United had a probability of 22.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.79%) and 2-0 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.12%), while for a Hartlepool United win it was 0-1 (6.32%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chesterfield would win this match.
Result | ||
Chesterfield | Draw | Hartlepool United |
53.93% ( -0.62) | 23.48% ( 0.37) | 22.59% ( 0.25) |
Both teams to score 53.9% ( -0.87) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
53.36% ( -1.31) | 46.64% ( 1.31) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
31.09% ( -1.24) | 68.91% ( 1.24) |
Chesterfield Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.79% ( -0.7) | 17.21% ( 0.7) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
52.51% ( -1.24) | 47.49% ( 1.24) |
Hartlepool United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.11% ( -0.5) | 34.88% ( 0.5) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.37% ( -0.53) | 71.62% ( 0.52) |
Score Analysis |
Chesterfield | Draw | Hartlepool United |
1-0 @ 10.56% ( 0.34) 2-1 @ 9.79% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 9.3% ( 0.08) 3-1 @ 5.74% ( -0.16) 3-0 @ 5.45% ( -0.08) 3-2 @ 3.02% ( -0.13) 4-1 @ 2.53% ( -0.13) 4-0 @ 2.4% ( -0.09) 4-2 @ 1.33% ( -0.09) Other @ 3.81% Total : 53.93% | 1-1 @ 11.12% ( 0.21) 0-0 @ 6% ( 0.32) 2-2 @ 5.15% ( -0.09) 3-3 @ 1.06% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.13% Total : 23.47% | 0-1 @ 6.32% ( 0.26) 1-2 @ 5.86% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 3.33% ( 0.09) 1-3 @ 2.06% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.81% ( -0.06) 0-3 @ 1.17% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.05% Total : 22.59% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | York City | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 47 | 20 | 27 | 48 |
2 | Barnet | 23 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 47 | 26 | 21 | 48 |
3 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 22 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 40 | 18 | 22 | 46 |
4 | Gateshead | 23 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 45 | 28 | 17 | 44 |
5 | Oldham AthleticOldham | 21 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 38 | 19 | 19 | 43 |
6 | Rochdale | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 31 | 19 | 12 | 36 |
7 | Solihull MoorsSolihull | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 42 | 36 | 6 | 35 |
8 | Halifax TownHalifax | 23 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 26 | 23 | 3 | 35 |
9 | AltrinchamAltrincham | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 37 | 30 | 7 | 34 |
10 | Yeovil TownYeovil | 23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 28 | 25 | 3 | 34 |
11 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 23 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 26 | 25 | 1 | 33 |
12 | Eastleigh | 22 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 30 | 28 | 2 | 32 |
13 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 30 | 29 | 1 | 32 |
14 | Tamworth | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 25 | 38 | -13 | 29 |
15 | Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 35 | 29 | 6 | 28 |
16 | Southend UnitedSouthend | 23 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 27 |
17 | Woking | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 24 |
18 | WealdstoneWealdstone | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 27 | 32 | -5 | 23 |
19 | Aldershot TownAldershot | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 23 |
20 | Fylde | 23 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 28 | 47 | -19 | 22 |
21 | Braintree TownBraintree | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 19 | 33 | -14 | 20 |
22 | Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 27 | 45 | -18 | 20 |
23 | Boston UnitedBoston | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 19 | 37 | -18 | 15 |
24 | Ebbsfleet | 23 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 17 | 54 | -37 | 9 |
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