We said: Orlando City 1-0 Inter Miami
The Herons have shown they can find ways to win even without Messi, but fatigue may be getting the better of this team in general, with fewer than a week to rest in between their matches since the Leagues Cup.
Orlando are well-organised and compact defensively, and they have looked potent in the attacking third at home, so we expect them to find a way through what could be a defensive setup for the Herons on Sunday.
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Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Orlando City win with a probability of 64.77%. A draw had a probability of 19.4% and a win for Inter Miami had a probability of 15.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Orlando City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.87%) and 1-0 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.01%), while for a Inter Miami win it was 1-2 (4.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9% likelihood.