Major League Soccer
Sep 4, 2023 at 3am UK
Banc of California Stadium
We said: Los Angeles FC 2-3 Inter Miami
On paper, Los Angeles may be superior to Inter Miami in many statistical categories, but the Herons have one element that no other MLS club can boast, Lionel Messi.
His presence has almost single-handedly turned the Miami fortunes around this season, while he has brought out the best in so many players on this team since arriving from Paris Saint-Germain, and we expect to see Messi and his former Barcelona teammates (Busquets and Alba) make all the difference for them on Sunday.
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Data Analysis Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Los Angeles FC win with a probability of 68.66% . A draw had a probability of 17.4% and a win for Inter Miami had a probability of 13.98% .
The most likely scoreline for a Los Angeles FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.53% . The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.32%) and 3-1 (7.78%) . The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.78%) , while for a Inter Miami win it was 1-2 (3.98%) . The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood . Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Inter Miami would win this match.
Result Los Angeles FC Draw Inter Miami 68.66% ( -0.18) 17.35% ( 0.08) 13.98% ( 0.1)
Both teams to score 58.51% ( -0.07)
67.38% ( -0.21) 32.62% ( 0.21)
45.72% ( -0.25) 54.28% ( 0.24)
91.36% ( -0.1) 8.64% ( 0.09)
Over 1.5 Under 1.5 70.2% ( -0.23) 29.8% ( 0.23)
64.04% ( -0.01) 35.96% ( 0.01)
Over 1.5 Under 1.5 27.26% ( -0.01) 72.73% ( 0.01)
Los Angeles FC 68.66%
Inter Miami 13.98%
Draw 17.35%
Los Angeles FC Draw Inter Miami 2-1 @ 9.53% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 9.32% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 7.78% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 7.61% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 7.6% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 4.76% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 4.65% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 3.98% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 2.44% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 2.33% ( -0.03) 5-0 @ 2.28% ( -0.03) 5-2 @ 1.19% ( -0.01) 6-1 @ 0.95% ( -0.02) 6-0 @ 0.93% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.32% Total : 68.66% 1-1 @ 7.78% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 4.87% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 3.11% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 1.36% ( -0) Other @ 0.23% Total : 17.35% 1-2 @ 3.98% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 3.18% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 1.66% ( 0) 0-2 @ 1.63% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 1.36% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.18% Total : 13.98%
How you voted: Los Angeles vs Inter Miami
Los Angeles FC
Draw
Inter Miami
61
rhs 2.0
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