Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Houston Dynamo win with a probability of 41.43%. A win for Austin FC had a probability of 34.72% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Houston Dynamo win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.42%) and 0-2 (6.01%). The likeliest Austin FC win was 2-1 (7.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.86%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Houston Dynamo would win this match.
Result | ||
Austin FC | Draw | Houston Dynamo |
34.72% ( 1.3) | 23.85% ( 0.29) | 41.43% ( -1.6) |
Both teams to score 61.63% ( -0.69) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
59.5% ( -1.06) | 40.5% ( 1.07) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
37.12% ( -1.1) | 62.88% ( 1.1) |
Austin FC Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
76.86% ( 0.23) | 23.13% ( -0.23) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
43% ( 0.33) | 57% ( -0.33) |
Houston Dynamo Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.18% ( -1.13) | 19.82% ( 1.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
48.1% ( -1.87) | 51.9% ( 1.87) |
Score Analysis |
Austin FC | Draw | Houston Dynamo |
2-1 @ 7.95% ( 0.21) 1-0 @ 6.71% ( 0.36) 2-0 @ 4.91% ( 0.3) 3-1 @ 3.88% ( 0.13) 3-2 @ 3.14% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 2.4% ( 0.16) 4-1 @ 1.42% ( 0.06) 4-2 @ 1.15% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.15% Total : 34.72% | 1-1 @ 10.86% ( 0.22) 2-2 @ 6.43% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 4.59% ( 0.22) 3-3 @ 1.69% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.28% Total : 23.85% | 1-2 @ 8.79% ( -0.14) 0-1 @ 7.42% ( 0.1) 0-2 @ 6.01% ( -0.14) 1-3 @ 4.74% ( -0.25) 2-3 @ 3.47% ( -0.16) 0-3 @ 3.24% ( -0.19) 1-4 @ 1.92% ( -0.18) 2-4 @ 1.4% ( -0.12) 0-4 @ 1.31% ( -0.13) Other @ 3.12% Total : 41.43% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 34 | 22 | 8 | 4 | 79 | 49 | 30 | 74 |
2 | Columbus Crew | 34 | 19 | 9 | 6 | 72 | 40 | 32 | 66 |
3 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 34 | 18 | 5 | 11 | 58 | 48 | 10 | 59 |
4 | Orlando City | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 59 | 50 | 9 | 52 |
5 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 46 | 37 | 9 | 51 |
6 | New York City FCNY City | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 54 | 49 | 5 | 50 |
7 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 34 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 55 | 50 | 5 | 47 |
8 | CF MontrealMontreal | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 48 | 64 | -16 | 43 |
9 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 49 | -3 | 40 |
10 | DC United | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 52 | 70 | -18 | 40 |
11 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 62 | 55 | 7 | 37 |
12 | Toronto | 34 | 11 | 4 | 19 | 40 | 61 | -21 | 37 |
13 | Nashville SCNashville | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 38 | 54 | -16 | 36 |
14 | New England RevolutionNew England | 34 | 9 | 4 | 21 | 37 | 74 | -37 | 31 |
15 | Chicago Fire | 34 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 40 | 62 | -22 | 30 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 63 | 43 | 20 | 64 |
2 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | 69 | 50 | 19 | 64 |
3 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 65 | 48 | 17 | 59 |
4 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 51 | 35 | 16 | 57 |
5 | Houston DynamoHouston | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 47 | 39 | 8 | 54 |
6 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 58 | 49 | 9 | 52 |
7 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 34 | 15 | 5 | 14 | 61 | 60 | 1 | 50 |
8 | Portland TimbersPortland | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 65 | 56 | 9 | 47 |
9 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 52 | 49 | 3 | 47 |
10 | Austin FCAustin | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 42 |
11 | Dallas | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 54 | 56 | -2 | 41 |
12 | St Louis City | 34 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 50 | 63 | -13 | 37 |
13 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 34 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 51 | 66 | -15 | 31 |
14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 34 | 6 | 3 | 25 | 41 | 78 | -37 | 21 |