Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 68.01%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for Troyes had a probability of 13.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.86%) and 2-1 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.99%), while for a Troyes win it was 0-1 (4.15%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.
Result | ||
Lille | Draw | Troyes |
68.01% ( -0.8) | 18.93% ( 0.42) | 13.06% ( 0.38) |
Both teams to score 49.83% ( -0.33) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.5% ( -1.02) | 42.5% ( 1.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.1% ( -1.03) | 64.9% ( 1.03) |
Lille Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.52% ( -0.5) | 11.48% ( 0.5) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
63.67% ( -1.09) | 36.33% ( 1.09) |
Troyes Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
56.29% ( -0.05) | 43.71% ( 0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
20.12% ( -0.05) | 79.88% ( 0.05) |
Score Analysis |
Lille | Draw | Troyes |
2-0 @ 11.75% ( 0.06) 1-0 @ 10.86% ( 0.28) 2-1 @ 9.73% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 8.48% ( -0.13) 3-1 @ 7.02% ( -0.12) 4-0 @ 4.59% ( -0.17) 4-1 @ 3.8% ( -0.14) 3-2 @ 2.91% ( -0.05) 5-0 @ 1.99% ( -0.11) 5-1 @ 1.64% ( -0.1) 4-2 @ 1.57% ( -0.06) Other @ 3.67% Total : 68% | 1-1 @ 8.99% ( 0.21) 0-0 @ 5.02% ( 0.23) 2-2 @ 4.03% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.9% Total : 18.93% | 0-1 @ 4.15% ( 0.18) 1-2 @ 3.72% ( 0.08) 0-2 @ 1.72% ( 0.07) 2-3 @ 1.11% ( 0) 1-3 @ 1.03% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.33% Total : 13.06% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 33 | 21 | 10 | 2 | 79 | 33 | 46 | 73 |
2 | MonacoMonaco | 33 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 64 | 42 | 22 | 64 |
3 | Lille | 33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 50 | 32 | 18 | 58 |
4 | Brest | 33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 50 | 34 | 16 | 58 |
5 | Nice | 33 | 15 | 9 | 9 | 38 | 27 | 11 | 54 |
6 | Lens | 33 | 14 | 8 | 11 | 43 | 35 | 8 | 50 |
7 | Lyon | 33 | 15 | 5 | 13 | 47 | 54 | -7 | 50 |
8 | Marseille | 33 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 50 | 40 | 10 | 47 |
9 | Rennes | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 52 | 44 | 8 | 46 |
10 | Reims | 33 | 12 | 8 | 13 | 40 | 46 | -6 | 44 |
11 | Toulouse | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 42 | 43 | -1 | 43 |
12 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 33 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 40 |
13 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 37 | 48 | -11 | 39 |
14 | NantesNantes | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 30 | 51 | -21 | 33 |
15 | Le HavreLe Havre | 33 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 33 | 43 | -10 | 32 |
16 | Metz | 33 | 8 | 5 | 20 | 35 | 56 | -21 | 29 |
17 | Lorient | 33 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 38 | 66 | -28 | 26 |
R | Clermont | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 26 | 55 | -29 | 25 |
> Ligue 1 Full Table |