Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruz Azul win with a probability of 56.3%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Toluca had a probability of 21.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cruz Azul win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.61%) and 0-2 (9.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.43%), while for a Toluca win it was 2-1 (5.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 3% likelihood.