European Under-21s Championship | Semi-Finals

Jul 5, 2023 at 8pm UK

Stadionul Steaua, Bucuresti

Spain U21s
5 - 1
Ukraine U21s

Ruiz (17'), Sancet (24'), Blanco (54'), Oroz (68'), Gomez (78')
Blanco (37')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Bondarenko (13')
Sych (44')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's European Under-21 Championship clash between Spain Under-21s and Ukraine Under-21s, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Spain Under-21s

All competitions

Last Game: Spain U21s 2-1 Switzerland U21s
Saturday, July 1 at 8pm in European Under-21 Championship

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Spain Under-21s	3	4	7
2	Ukraine Under-21s	3	3	7
3	Croatia Under-21s	3	-3	1
4	Romania Under-21s	3	-4	1

Ukraine Under-21s

All competitions

Last Game: France U21s 1-3 Ukraine U21s
Sunday, July 2 at 8pm in European Under-21 Championship

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Spain Under-21s	3	4	7
2	Ukraine Under-21s	3	3	7
3	Croatia Under-21s	3	-3	1
4	Romania Under-21s	3	-4	1

We said: Spain Under-21s 3-2 Ukraine Under-21s (after extra time)

Spain certainly start favourites, given their pedigree and recent form. However, Ukraine are no pushovers, having scored in each of their last 19 matches, losing on just two occasions. Both teams are strong in the final third, so several goals may be traded - with an extra 30 minutes potentially required to separate them. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spain Under-21s win with a probability of 69.39%. A draw had a probability of 18.7% and a win for Ukraine Under-21s had a probability of 11.96%.

The most likely scoreline for a Spain Under-21s win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.57%) and 2-1 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.87%), while for a Ukraine Under-21s win it was 0-1 (4.11%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Spain Under-21s would win this match.

Result
Spain Under-21s	Draw	Ukraine Under-21s
69.39%	18.65%	11.96%

Both teams to score 47.37%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.02%

43.99%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.63%

66.37%

Spain Under-21s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

88.47%

11.53%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

63.56%

36.45%

Ukraine Under-21s Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

53.55%

46.46%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

17.93%

82.07%

Score Analysis

Spain Under-21s 69.38%

Ukraine Under-21s 11.96%

Draw 18.65%

Spain Under-21s	Draw	Ukraine Under-21s
2-0 @ 12.49% 1-0 @ 11.57% 2-1 @ 9.58% 3-0 @ 9% 3-1 @ 6.9% 4-0 @ 4.86% 4-1 @ 3.73% 3-2 @ 2.64% 5-0 @ 2.1% 5-1 @ 1.61% 4-2 @ 1.43% Other @ 3.48% Total : 69.38%	1-1 @ 8.87% 0-0 @ 5.36% 2-2 @ 3.67% Other @ 0.75% Total : 18.65%	0-1 @ 4.11% 1-2 @ 3.4% 0-2 @ 1.58% 2-3 @ 0.94% Other @ 1.94% Total : 11.96%