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Serie A | Gameweek 16
Dec 17, 2023 at 11.30am UK
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Monza

AC Milan
3 - 0
Monza

Reijnders (3'), Simic (41'), Okafor (76')
Reijnders (34')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Carboni (55'), Gagliardini (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between AC Milan and Monza, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Newcastle 1-2 AC Milan
Wednesday, December 13 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Monza 1-0 Genoa
Sunday, December 10 at 2pm in Serie A

We said: AC Milan 1-1 Monza

Milan are the only team yet to draw a home match in Serie A this season, but that streak may come to an end on Sunday afternoon. A hangover from their Champions League exploits is a distinct possibility, while Monza are no pushovers and will be motivated by meeting their illustrious regional rivals. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 55.06%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Monza had a probability of 22.34%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.57%) and 2-0 (8.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.58%), while for a Monza win it was 1-2 (5.85%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.

Result
AC MilanDrawMonza
55.06% (2.179 2.18) 22.59% (-0.954 -0.95) 22.34% (-1.227 -1.23)
Both teams to score 56.51% (1.616 1.62)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.97% (2.876 2.88)43.03% (-2.878 -2.88)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
34.57% (2.786 2.79)65.43% (-2.788 -2.79)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.47% (1.801 1.8)15.52% (-1.802 -1.8)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
55.56% (3.254 3.25)44.44% (-3.256 -3.26)
Monza Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.9% (0.496 0.5)33.1% (-0.498 -0.5)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.3% (0.542 0.54)69.7% (-0.544 -0.54)
Score Analysis
    AC Milan 55.06%
    Monza 22.34%
    Draw 22.59%
AC MilanDrawMonza
2-1 @ 9.86% (0.102 0.1)
1-0 @ 9.57% (-0.628 -0.63)
2-0 @ 8.92% (-0.028 -0.03)
3-1 @ 6.12% (0.421 0.42)
3-0 @ 5.54% (0.31 0.31)
3-2 @ 3.38% (0.274 0.27)
4-1 @ 2.85% (0.352 0.35)
4-0 @ 2.58% (0.287 0.29)
4-2 @ 1.58% (0.214 0.21)
5-1 @ 1.06% (0.186 0.19)
5-0 @ 0.96% (0.158 0.16)
Other @ 2.65%
Total : 55.06%
1-1 @ 10.58% (-0.54 -0.54)
2-2 @ 5.45% (0.129 0.13)
0-0 @ 5.14% (-0.682 -0.68)
3-3 @ 1.25% (0.117 0.12)
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 22.59%
1-2 @ 5.85% (-0.22 -0.22)
0-1 @ 5.68% (-0.668 -0.67)
0-2 @ 3.14% (-0.322 -0.32)
1-3 @ 2.16% (-0.051 -0.05)
2-3 @ 2.01% (0.074 0.07)
0-3 @ 1.16% (-0.102 -0.1)
Other @ 2.35%
Total : 22.34%

How you voted: AC Milan vs Monza

AC Milan
86.3%
Draw
7.8%
Monza
5.9%
51
Head to Head
Feb 18, 2023 5pm
Gameweek 23
Monza
0-1
AC Milan
Messias (31')
Oct 22, 2022 5pm
Gameweek 11
AC Milan
4-1
Monza
Diaz (16', 41'), Origi (65'), Leao (84')
Ranocchia (70')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
12.15am
Texans
@
Jets
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Napoli108111851325
2Inter Milan1063124131121
3Atalanta BCAtalanta1061326141219
4Fiorentina105412191219
5Lazio106132213919
6Juventus104601771018
7Udinese105141414016
8AC Milan94231611514
9Torino104241515014
10Roma103431011-113
11Bologna92611111012
12Empoli1025379-211
13Como102351221-99
14CagliariCagliari10235817-99
15Parma101631416-29
16Hellas VeronaHellas Verona103071322-99
17Monza101541013-38
18VeneziaVenezia102261018-88
19Lecce10226419-158
20Genoa10136721-146


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