Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 41.66%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 31.29% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.59%) and 0-2 (7.65%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 1-0 (9.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.82%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.
