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Walsall
Championship header 2

League Two
Crewe Alexandra
League Two | Gameweek 24
Jan 1, 2025 at 3pm UK
Alexandra Stadium
Carlisle United

Crewe
3 - 2
Carlisle

Long (32'), Bogle (90+3'), Lankester (90+8')
Williams (35'), Knight-Lebel (86'), Conway (90+2')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Ellis (21'), Harris (78')
Lavelle (8'), Neal (53'), Breeze (84'), Biggins (90+6')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's League Two clash between Crewe Alexandra and Carlisle United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Crewe Alexandra

All competitions
League Two
Last Game: MK Dons 1-1 Crewe
Sunday, December 29 at 3pm in League Two

Carlisle United

All competitions
Last Game: Carlisle 2-1 Accrington
Sunday, December 29 at 12.30pm in League Two

We said: Crewe Alexandra 1-0 Carlisle United

 Crewe have stayed undefeated on home soil since losing 5-0 to Chesterfield on August 17, although they have been held to four draws in the subsequent nine matches, including the previous two against Bradford City (1-1) and Colchester United (0-0). Despite their propensity for the odd stalemate, Bell's side should eke out a marginal win over second-bottom Carlisle. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crewe Alexandra win with a probability of 39.91%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 32.63% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Crewe Alexandra win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.33%) and 2-0 (7.35%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (10.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Crewe Alexandra would win this match.

Result
Crewe AlexandraDrawCarlisle United
39.91% (-0.022999999999996 -0.02) 27.46% (0.0069999999999979 0.01) 32.63% (0.012999999999998 0.01)
Both teams to score 49% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
43.45% (-0.028999999999996 -0.03)56.55% (0.025999999999996 0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
22.46% (-0.023000000000003 -0.02)77.54% (0.021000000000001 0.02)
Crewe Alexandra Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.29% (-0.025999999999996 -0.03)27.71% (0.023 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.72% (-0.033000000000001 -0.03)63.27% (0.031000000000006 0.03)
Carlisle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.78% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)32.22% (0.0039999999999978 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.29% (-0.0070000000000014 -0.01)68.71% (0.0039999999999907 0)
Score Analysis
    Crewe Alexandra 39.9%
    Carlisle United 32.63%
    Draw 27.45%
Crewe AlexandraDrawCarlisle United
1-0 @ 11.45%
2-1 @ 8.33% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
2-0 @ 7.35% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-1 @ 3.56% (-0.004 -0)
3-0 @ 3.15% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-2 @ 2.02% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
4-1 @ 1.14% (-0.002 -0)
4-0 @ 1.01% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 1.9%
Total : 39.9%
1-1 @ 12.97%
0-0 @ 8.93% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
2-2 @ 4.72% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Other @ 0.84%
Total : 27.45%
0-1 @ 10.11% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-2 @ 7.35% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-2 @ 5.73% (0.0040000000000004 0)
1-3 @ 2.78%
0-3 @ 2.16% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-3 @ 1.78% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 2.72%
Total : 32.63%

How you voted: Crewe vs Carlisle

Crewe Alexandra
88.9%
Draw
5.6%
Carlisle United
5.6%
18
Head to Head
Nov 30, 2024 12.30pm
Gameweek 18
Carlisle
1-1
Crewe
Sadi (2')
Harris (64'), Jones (72'), Kelly (81'), Neal (89')
Lankester (82' pen.)
Connolly (11'), Billington (12')
> Preview
Dec 29, 2022 7pm
Gameweek 24
Crewe
0-3
Carlisle
Feeney (6'), Moxon (46'), Dennis (72')
> Preview
Oct 1, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 12
Carlisle
0-0
Crewe
Jan 1, 2020 3pm
Gameweek 25
Crewe
4-1
Carlisle
Ainley (17'), Powell (26', 31'), Anene (34')
Dale (72')
Iredale (56')
Sagaf (24'), Loft (30')
Oct 12, 2019 3pm
Gameweek 13
Carlisle
2-4
Crewe
Hope (59'), Elliott (64')
Hunt (7'), Powell (27'), Porter (78'), Gethin (85' og.)
Nolan (86')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Walsall23164343202352
2AFC Wimbledon23124735191640
3Doncaster RoversDoncaster2411763428640
4Salford City2311662819939
5Crewe AlexandraCrewe2310942921839
6Port Vale2410862724338
7Notts County23107636261037
8Grimsby Town24121113537-237
9Bradford CityBradford239863026435
10Chesterfield249783829934
11Bromley2381053426834
12MK Dons2210483630634
13Cheltenham TownCheltenham248793436-231
14Gillingham2393112224-230
15BarrowBarrow237792324-128
16Colchester UnitedColchester2351262826227
17Fleetwood TownFleetwood226972828027
18Newport CountyNewport2375113040-1026
19Swindon TownSwindon2459103139-824
20Accrington StanleyAccrington2257103040-1022
21Tranmere RoversTranmere2257101632-1622
22Harrogate TownHarrogate2464141937-1822
23Morecambe2455142239-1720
24Carlisle UnitedCarlisle2346131937-1818
> League Two Full Table


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