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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 39.11%. A win for Accrington Stanley had a probability of 37.18% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.93%) and 0-2 (5.51%). The likeliest Accrington Stanley win was 2-1 (8.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.7%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Swindon Town would win this match.
Result | ||
Accrington Stanley | Draw | Swindon Town |
37.18% ( -0.13) | 23.71% ( 0.09) | 39.11% ( 0.04) |
Both teams to score 62.56% ( -0.35) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
60.55% ( -0.45) | 39.44% ( 0.46) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
38.21% ( -0.47) | 61.79% ( 0.48) |
Accrington Stanley Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.63% ( -0.26) | 21.37% ( 0.27) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
45.65% ( -0.41) | 54.34% ( 0.42) |
Swindon Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.57% ( -0.17) | 20.43% ( 0.18) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
47.12% ( -0.28) | 52.88% ( 0.29) |
Score Analysis |
Accrington Stanley | Draw | Swindon Town |
2-1 @ 8.26% ( -0) 1-0 @ 6.74% ( 0.09) 2-0 @ 5.2% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 4.25% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 3.37% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 2.68% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.64% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 1.3% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 1.03% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.72% Total : 37.18% | 1-1 @ 10.7% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 6.56% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 4.37% ( 0.09) 3-3 @ 1.79% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.3% Total : 23.71% | 1-2 @ 8.5% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 6.93% ( 0.11) 0-2 @ 5.51% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 4.5% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 3.47% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 2.91% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 1.79% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 1.38% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 1.16% ( -0) Other @ 2.97% Total : 39.11% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 28 |
4 | Walsall | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 12 | 27 |
5 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
6 | Notts County | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Grimsby Town | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 25 |
8 | AFC Wimbledon | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 13 | 10 | 23 |
9 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
10 | Gillingham | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 23 |
11 | Chesterfield | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 22 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Newport CountyNewport | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 20 |
16 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 18 |
17 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 18 |
18 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 18 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 17 |
20 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 14 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 13 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 12 |
24 | Morecambe | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 10 |
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