Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rochdale win with a probability of 37.53%. A win for Accrington Stanley had a probability of 34.97% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rochdale win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.05%) and 2-0 (6.79%). The likeliest Accrington Stanley win was 0-1 (10.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rochdale would win this match.