League One

League One | Gameweek 23

Dec 23, 2023 at 3pm UK

Brunton Park

Carlisle
0 - 1
Cheltenham

Lavelle (38'), Moxon (67')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Sercombe (27')
Bonds (40'), Freestone (82'), Long (90+5')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Carlisle United and Cheltenham Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Carlisle United

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Carlisle 2-2 Northampton
Saturday, December 16 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Cheltenham Town

All competitions

League One

Last Game: Cheltenham 1-2 Leyton Orient
Saturday, December 16 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Carlisle United 1-1 Cheltenham Town

With both teams struggling to score goals and sitting within the relegation places, this could be a scrappy contest. A victory for either team would be a huge boost to their survival hopes. However, we can envisage them having to share the spoils after a low-scoring draw. Both sides conceded injury-time goals to drop points last time out and may be content with avoiding defeat. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 48.66%. A win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 25.82% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.34%) and 2-0 (8.91%). The likeliest Cheltenham Town win was 0-1 (7.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.13%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.

Result
Carlisle United	Draw	Cheltenham Town
48.66% ( -0.64)	25.52% ( 0.23)	25.82% ( 0.4)

Both teams to score 51.03% (

-0.35)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.86% (

-0.63)

52.13% (

0.63)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.15% (

-0.55)

73.85% (

0.54)

Carlisle United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.56% (

-0.54)

21.44% (

0.53)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.54% (

-0.83)

54.45% (

0.82)

Cheltenham Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.95% (

-0)

35.04% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.21% (

-0)

71.79% (

-0)

Score Analysis

Carlisle United 48.65%

Cheltenham Town 25.82%

Draw 25.52%

Carlisle United	Draw	Cheltenham Town
1-0 @ 11.56% ( 0.1) 2-1 @ 9.34% ( -0.07) 2-0 @ 8.91% ( -0.07) 3-1 @ 4.8% ( -0.11) 3-0 @ 4.57% ( -0.11) 3-2 @ 2.51% ( -0.06) 4-1 @ 1.85% ( -0.08) 4-0 @ 1.76% ( -0.07) 4-2 @ 0.97% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.38% Total : 48.65%	1-1 @ 12.13% ( 0.11) 0-0 @ 7.51% ( 0.19) 2-2 @ 4.9% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.97% Total : 25.52%	0-1 @ 7.88% ( 0.2) 1-2 @ 6.36% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 4.13% ( 0.1) 1-3 @ 2.22% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 1.71% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.44% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.07% Total : 25.82%