La Liga

La Liga | Gameweek 13

Nov 11, 2023 at 8pm UK

Estadio Santiago Bernabeu

Real Madrid
5 - 1
Valencia

Carvajal (3'), Junior (42', 49'), Rodrygo (50', 84')
Camavinga (62')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Duro (88')
Pepelu (34'), Foulquier (56'), Paulista (67')

Carlo Ancelotti not expecting Jude Bellingham to be available for England

Real Madrid head coach Carlo Ancelotti expects Jude Bellingham to withdraw from the England squad due to a shoulder injury.

Nov 12, 08:00

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Real Madrid

All competitions

La Liga

Last Game: Real Madrid 3-0 Braga
Wednesday, November 8 at 8pm in Champions League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Valencia

All competitions

La Liga

Last Game: Valencia 1-0 Granada
Sunday, November 5 at 3.15pm in La Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Real Madrid 2-1 Valencia

Valencia are capable of making this an uncomfortable match for Real Madrid, with Los Che boasting a number of talented players in the forward positions. Los Blancos will be determined to return to winning ways in Spain's top flight, though, and we are backing them to navigate their way to all three points on Saturday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 65.56%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Valencia had a probability of 13.86%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.4%) and 2-1 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.77%), while for a Valencia win it was 0-1 (4.93%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.

Result
Real Madrid	Draw	Valencia
65.56% ( 0.59)	20.58% ( -0.11)	13.86% ( -0.48)

Both teams to score 46.69% (

-0.88)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.13% (

-0.51)

47.86% (

0.51)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.95% (

-0.47)

70.05% (

0.47)

Real Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.21% (

0.02)

13.79% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

58.89% (

0.04)

41.1% (

-0.04)

Valencia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

54.16% (

-1.03)

45.84% (

1.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

18.41% (

-0.81)

81.59% (

0.81)

Score Analysis

Real Madrid 65.55%

Valencia 13.86%

Draw 20.58%

Real Madrid	Draw	Valencia
1-0 @ 12.52% ( 0.27) 2-0 @ 12.4% ( 0.28) 2-1 @ 9.68% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 8.19% ( 0.19) 3-1 @ 6.39% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 4.06% ( 0.1) 4-1 @ 3.17% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.49% ( -0.09) 5-0 @ 1.61% ( 0.04) 5-1 @ 1.26% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.24% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.55% Total : 65.55%	1-1 @ 9.77% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 6.32% ( 0.13) 2-2 @ 3.78% ( -0.13) Other @ 0.72% Total : 20.58%	0-1 @ 4.93% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 3.81% ( -0.14) 0-2 @ 1.92% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 0.99% ( -0.07) 2-3 @ 0.98% ( -0.06) Other @ 1.23% Total : 13.86%