La Liga

La Liga | Gameweek 12

Nov 5, 2023 at 1pm UK

Estadio de Mendizorroza

Alaves
1 - 0
Almeria

Sedlar (79')
Gorosabel (25'), Rioja (81')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Melero (14'), Maximiano (52'), Robertone (59')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's La Liga clash between Alaves and Almeria, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Alaves

All competitions

La Liga

Last Game: Deportivo Murcia 0-10 Alaves
Thursday, November 2 at 8pm in Copa del Rey

Goals
for

Top scorers

Almeria

All competitions

La Liga

Last Game: Talavera 0-2 Almeria
Tuesday, October 31 at 8pm in Copa del Rey

Goals
for

These two teams are well-matched on paper, and we are expecting a tight match on Sunday. Almeria have lost their last four La Liga matches on the road, but we have a feeling that they will be good enough for a point this weekend, as Alaves have also had issues winning matches this season. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alaves win with a probability of 45.52%. A win for Almeria had a probability of 28.65% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.

The most likely scoreline for an Alaves win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.13%) and 2-0 (8.13%). The likeliest Almeria win was 0-1 (8.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Alaves in this match.

Result
Alaves	Draw	Almeria
45.52% ( -0.63)	25.83% ( 0.17)	28.65% ( 0.45)

Both teams to score 52.19% (

-0.25)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.36% (

-0.47)

51.64% (

0.46)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.58% (

-0.41)

73.42% (

0.4)

Alaves Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.36% (

-0.49)

22.64% (

0.48)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.73% (

-0.73)

56.27% (

0.72)

Almeria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.46% (

0.1)

32.54% (

-0.1)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.93% (

0.11)

69.07% (

-0.12)

Score Analysis

Alaves 45.52%

Almeria 28.65%

Draw 25.82%

Alaves	Draw	Almeria
1-0 @ 10.94% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 9.13% ( -0.07) 2-0 @ 8.13% ( -0.08) 3-1 @ 4.52% ( -0.1) 3-0 @ 4.02% ( -0.1) 3-2 @ 2.54% ( -0.05) 4-1 @ 1.68% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 1.49% ( -0.06) 4-2 @ 0.94% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.13% Total : 45.52%	1-1 @ 12.28% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 7.37% ( 0.14) 2-2 @ 5.12% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 0.95% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.82%	0-1 @ 8.27% ( 0.17) 1-2 @ 6.9% ( 0.07) 0-2 @ 4.64% ( 0.11) 1-3 @ 2.58% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 1.92% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.74% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.6% Total : 28.65%