A place in the final of the Gold Cup will be on the line this Wednesday when Jamaica and Mexico square off at Allegiant Stadium in La Vegas.
The Reggae Boyz eventually found a breakthrough in the second half of their quarter-final clash with Guatemala last weekend, beating them 1-0, while El Tri are in the semis for a ninth successive occasion following its 2-0 win over Costa Rica.
Match preview
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In a tension-filled encounter at TQL Stadium last weekend, Jamaica did enough to get by a stubborn Guatemalan defensive unit that did not leave many openings.
What it means is that the Jamaicans are in the Gold Cup semi-finals for the fourth time in the past five editions of this tournament, with a chance to make the final for the first time since 2017.
Throughout this tournament, the Jamaicans have been fast starters which has played a big part in their success, notching the opening goal in all of their matches in this year's competition, going unbeaten since 2009 when scoring first at the Gold Cup, while losing their last three Gold Cup encounters when conceding the opener.
Heimir Hallgrimsson has found many ways to keep his side competitive, from hanging back and playing on the counter, like in their quarter-final victory over the Guatemalans, or dominating possession, which we saw in their wins against Trinidad and Tobago (4-1) and Saint Kitts and Nevis (5-0).
This team have not conceded a goal in the opening half all tournament long, and since the 2017 Gold Cup concluded, they have only given up a first-half strike in two encounters at this tournament.
It has been nearly six years since they last defeated El Tri, winning 1-0 in a 2017 friendly, though they have had some success against them at the Gold Cup, unbeaten and without a goal conceded in their last two meetings at this tournament, including a 1-0 victory in the 2019 semi-finals at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena.
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Amid all of the fan and media scrutiny surrounding them ahead of this tournament, plus some inconsistent performances on the field, the Mexicans have found a way to get back into the semi-finals of the Gold Cup yet again.
Jaime Lozano saw a rock-solid unit on Saturday versus Los Ticos, holding their opponents to just a single shot on target, as their patience eventually paid off, going ahead a few minutes into the second half and never looking back.
El Tri have done a nice job at balancing out when to play defensively and shut a game down, while also understanding when to go for more, conceding a goal or fewer in each of their encounters this year, while scoring two more goals after four Gold Cup matches this year (nine) than they had at this same stage in 2021.
The Mexicans have not had to fight their way back into a Gold Cup encounter this year and have not won a game when trailing 1-0 since coming back to beat Jamaica 2-1 in a January 2022 World Cup qualifier.
Their only two semi-final defeats this century have occurred when allowing the opening goal, while El Tri have not been shut out of a semi-final encounter at the Gold Cup since a 2017 defeat to the Reggae Boyz (1-0).
Mexico fought their way back in both of their matches against Jamaica at the most recent CONCACAF Nations League tournament to earn a pair of valuable points, though they have not defeated them at this tournament since claiming a 3-1 victory and lifting the trophy in 2015.
Team News
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Hallgrimsson made five changes to his opening lineup versus the Guatemalans, with Andre Blake reclaiming his spot in goal over Jahmali Waite, while Damion Lowe, Javain Brown, Kevon Lambert and Bobby Decordova-Reid came into the starting 11 in place of Dexter Lembikisa, Adrian Mariappa, Jon Russell and Kaheem Parris.
Amari'i Bell had the only goal for them in their victory over Guatemala, his first as a member of the Reggae Boyz, Michail Antonio has not found the back of the net internationally since January 2022, while Shamar Nicholson is without a goal for this team in nearly two years.
Kemar Lawrence notched a late second-half strike to beat Mexico 1-0 in the 2017 Gold Cup semi-finals, while Leon Bailey had one against them when the two sides drew 1-1 in a Nations League affair last June.
We saw numerous changes made to the Mexican starting 11 against Costa Rica as Edson Alvarez, Luis Romo, Luis Chavez and Orbelin Pineda were the only ones that began the match versus Qatar, who kept their place in the starting 11 last weekend.
Pineda and Erick Sanchez scored in the second half of their quarter-final clash, with Guillermo Ochoa collecting a comfortable clean sheet.
Jesus Gallardo is only 11 appearances away from reaching 100 with the national team, Roberto Alvarado has a chance to get to 40, Julian Araujo hit the double-digit mark in that category on Saturday and Henry Martin is three away from 40.
Jamaica possible starting lineup:
Blake; Lembikisa, Lowe, Bernard, Bell; Decordova-Reid, Latibeaudiere, Johnson, Gray; Bailey, Antonio
Mexico possible starting lineup:
Ochoa; J. Sanchez, Montes, Vasquez, Gallardo; Alvarez; Antuna, Romo, Gimenez, Pineda; Martin
We say: Jamaica 1-1 Mexico (Jamaica advances on penalties).
By now, both of these veteran sides know what it is like to play in these high stakes encounters, and we expect a close match between two well-balanced teams on Wednesday.
We believe the Jamaicans might have a slight edge regarding consistency and goalkeeping, and the latter will come in handy the longer this match is deadlocked.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mexico win with a probability of 46.29%. A draw had a probability of 27.2% and a win for Jamaica had a probability of 26.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mexico win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.04%) and 1-2 (8.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.75%), while for a Jamaica win it was 1-0 (9.21%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mexico would win this match.
Joel Lefevre
USA
Jamaica
Saint Kitts
Mexico
Qatar
Honduras
Panama
Costa Rica
Canada
Cuba
