UEFA Nations League

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Nations League | League A

Sep 4, 2020 at 7.45pm UK

Stadio Artemio Franchi

Italy
1 - 1
Bosnia H'vina

Sensi (67')
Belotti (65'), Zaniolo (80'), Bonucci (80')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Dzeko (57')
Cimirot (80')

Preview: Italy vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina - prediction, team news, lineups

By Matt Law, Football Editor

Published: September 2 2020 | 11:11

Last updated: September 3 2020 | 17:25

Sports Mole previews Friday's UEFA Nations League clash between Italy and Bosnia-Herzegovina, including team news and predicted lineups.

Italy will begin their 2020-21 UEFA Nations League campaign with a clash against Bosnia-Herzegovina in Florence on Friday night.

The match is Italy's first since thumping Armenia 9-1 in their final Euro 2020 qualifier back in November, while Bosnia finished their qualification campaign for the same tournament against Liechtenstein on the same night.

Match preview

Italy head coach Roberto Mancini pictured on November 18, 2019 © Reuters

Italy failed to show their best in the inaugural UEFA Nations League, finishing second behind Portugal in their group, having only won one of their four matches, picking up just five points in the process.

Head coach Roberto Mancini has stressed the importance of making an impression in the latest tournament, though, and the Azzurri will enter Friday's clash in excellent form.

Indeed, the Italians are currently on a run of 11 successive wins - an all-time record - and they will fancy their chances of putting another victory on the board in this game before taking on the Netherlands for what should be a mouthwatering contest on September 7.

Mancini's side breezed through their Euro 2020 qualification group, winning all 10 of their matches, scoring 37 times and conceding just four during an excellent campaign.

As mentioned, though, they struggled to make their mark in the UEFA Nations League two years ago, recording just one win from four matches, with their last clash in this tournament bringing a goalless draw against eventual winners Portugal in November 2018.

Italy's Lorenzo Insigne in action with Bosnia-Herzegovina's Adnan Kovacevic in November 2019 © Reuters

Bosnia, meanwhile, earned promotion to League A in this competition courtesy of finishing top of League B Group 3 last time out, collecting 10 points from their four matches against Austria and Northern Ireland.

The Dragons competed at the 2014 World Cup but have never qualified for the finals of a European Championship, losing to Portugal and the Republic of Ireland in recent playoff affairs.

Bosnia finished fourth in Group J during qualification for Euro 2021, suffering five defeats, including home and away to Italy, but they are still in the mix to make next summer's tournament.

Indeed, Dusan Bajevic's side will take on Northern Ireland in the semi-finals of the playoffs next month, before a potential final against Slovakia or the Republic of Ireland in November.

Italy Nations League form: DLWD
Italy form (all competitions): WWWWWW

Bosnia Nations League form: WWWD
Bosnia form (all competitions): WLWLLW

Team News

Juventus's Federico Bernardeschi in action with Genoa's Stefano Sturaro in Serie A on June 30, 2020 © Reuters

Italy will be unable to call upon Federico Bernardeschi for their next two matches as the Juventus attacker has been forced to withdraw from the squad due to a muscular injury.

Napoli's Lorenzo Insigne is also absent due to an ankle injury, but a strong XI is expected to include the likes of Leonardo Bonucci, Jorginho and Ciro Immobile.

Federico Chiesa and Nicolo Zaniolo could also feature in the starting side, although Sandro Tonali has been left out as the midfielder closes in on a switch to AC Milan.

As for Bosnia, Roma forward Edin Dzeko is expected to lead the line, and the 34-year-old will be looking to add to the 58 goals that he has scored at international level.

The second leading scorer in the squad is Edin Visca with 10 goals, and he is likely to be handed an attacking spot, with Armin Hodzic also expected to feature in the final third.

Arsenal's Sead Kolasinac and Everton's Muhamed Besic should also feature for the visitors, who have won one and lost two of their three previous encounters with Italy.

Italy possible starting lineup:
Sirigu; Di Lorenzo, Bonucci, Bastoni, Biraghi; Barella, Jorginho, Gagliardini; Chiesa, Immobile, Zaniolo

Bosnia possible starting lineup:
Sehic; Civic, Bicakcic, Sunjic, Kolasinac; Duljevic, Besic, Cimirot; Hodzic, Dzeko, Visca

SM words green background

We say: Italy 2-0 Bosnia

Bosnia are certainly capable of making it a difficult evening for Italy, but we are finding it difficult to back against the home side; Mancini's side are on an excellent run of form and should have too much.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 57.38%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Bosnia-Herzegovina had a probability of 20.21%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.91%) and 2-0 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.59%), while for a Bosnia-Herzegovina win it was 0-1 (5.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood.