Friendlies 3

Oct 14, 2023 at 4am UK

Stade Numa Daly

P. New Guinea
0 - 1
Vanuatu

FT(HT: 0-1)

Mansale (45+1')

Data Analysis

Coverage of the International Friendlies Friendlies 3 clash between Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu.

Form, Standings, Stats

Papua New Guinea

Last Game: P. New Guinea 1-3 New Caledonia
Wednesday, October 11 at 6am in International Friendlies

Vanuatu

Last Game: Solomon Islands 1-0 Vanuatu
Wednesday, October 11 at 3am in International Friendlies

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Papua New Guinea win with a probability of 42.02%. A win for Vanuatu had a probability of 33.53% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Papua New Guinea win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.27%) and 2-0 (6.48%). The likeliest Vanuatu win was 1-2 (7.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.36%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.

Result
Papua New Guinea	Draw	Vanuatu
42.02% ( 0.74)	24.45% ( 0.04)	33.53% ( -0.78)

Both teams to score 59.12% (

-0.38)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.37% (

-0.4)

43.63% (

0.41)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.97% (

-0.4)

66.02% (

0.4)

Papua New Guinea Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.13% (

0.17)

20.87% (

-0.17)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.42% (

0.26)

53.57% (

-0.26)

Vanuatu Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.72% (

-0.64)

25.28% (

0.65)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.96% (

-0.89)

60.04% (

0.9)

Score Analysis

Papua New Guinea 42.02%

Vanuatu 33.53%

Draw 24.44%

Papua New Guinea	Draw	Vanuatu
2-1 @ 8.91% ( 0.08) 1-0 @ 8.27% ( 0.19) 2-0 @ 6.48% ( 0.18) 3-1 @ 4.65% ( 0.07) 3-0 @ 3.38% ( 0.11) 3-2 @ 3.2% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.82% ( 0.04) 4-0 @ 1.33% ( 0.05) 4-2 @ 1.25% ( 0) Other @ 2.74% Total : 42.02%	1-1 @ 11.36% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 6.12% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 5.28% ( 0.09) 3-3 @ 1.47% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.22% Total : 24.44%	1-2 @ 7.82% ( -0.11) 0-1 @ 7.26% ( -0) 0-2 @ 4.99% ( -0.1) 1-3 @ 3.58% ( -0.12) 2-3 @ 2.81% ( -0.08) 0-3 @ 2.29% ( -0.09) 1-4 @ 1.23% ( -0.07) 2-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.59% Total : 33.53%