Friendlies 3

Oct 11, 2023 at 6am UK

Stade Yoshida

P. New Guinea
1 - 3
New Caledonia

Neoere (42'), Welepane (52' pen.)

FT(HT: 1-1)

Semmy (45+2'), Xowi (71')

Data Analysis

Coverage of the International Friendlies Friendlies 3 clash between Papua New Guinea and New Caledonia.

Form, Standings, Stats

Papua New Guinea

Last Game: P. New Guinea 1-3 Solomon Islands
Sunday, October 8 at 4am in International Friendlies

New Caledonia

Last Game: New Caledonia 4-0 Vanuatu
Sunday, October 8 at 7am in International Friendlies

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Papua New Guinea win with a probability of 42.12%. A win for New Caledonia had a probability of 33.4% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Papua New Guinea win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.32%) and 2-0 (6.52%). The likeliest New Caledonia win was 1-2 (7.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood.

Result
Papua New Guinea	Draw	New Caledonia
42.12% ( 0.15)	24.48% ( -0.05)	33.4% ( -0.1)

Both teams to score 58.97% (

0.13)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.19% (

0.19)

43.81% (

-0.19)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.81% (

0.18)

66.19% (

-0.18)

Papua New Guinea Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.1% (

0.15)

20.9% (

-0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.39% (

0.23)

53.61% (

-0.23)

New Caledonia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.56% (

0.03)

25.44% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.73% (

0.04)

60.26% (

-0.04)

Score Analysis

Papua New Guinea 42.12%

New Caledonia 33.4%

Draw 24.48%

Papua New Guinea	Draw	New Caledonia
2-1 @ 8.92% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 8.32% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 6.52% ( 0) 3-1 @ 4.65% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 3.4% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 3.19% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.82% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 1.33% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.25% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.73% Total : 42.12%	1-1 @ 11.39% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 6.1% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 5.32% ( -0.04) 3-3 @ 1.45% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.48%	1-2 @ 7.8% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 7.28% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 4.98% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 3.56% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.79% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 2.27% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.22% ( -0) 2-4 @ 0.95% ( 0) Other @ 2.56% Total : 33.4%