World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - Oceania | Group Stage

Mar 21, 2022 at 2pm UK

P. New Guinea
1 - 0
New Caledonia

Semmy (8')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Gope-Fenepej (90+3')
Decoire (87')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Coverage of the World Cup Qualifying - Oceania Group Stage clash between Papua New Guinea and New Caledonia.

Form, Standings, Stats

Papua New Guinea

Last Game: Solomon Islands 3-2 P. New Guinea
Sunday, March 27 at 3pm in World Cup Qualifying - Oceania

New Caledonia

Last Game: New Zealand 7-1 New Caledonia
Thursday, March 24 at 5pm in World Cup Qualifying - Oceania

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Papua New Guinea win with a probability of 49.63%. A win for New Caledonia had a probability of 26.22% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Papua New Guinea win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.57%) and 2-0 (8.29%). The likeliest New Caledonia win was 0-1 (6.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Papua New Guinea in this match.

Result
Papua New Guinea	Draw	New Caledonia
49.63%	24.15%	26.22%

Both teams to score 55.7%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.84%

46.15%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.55%

68.45%

Papua New Guinea Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.34%

18.65%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.02%

49.97%

New Caledonia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.47%

31.53%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.08%

67.92%

Score Analysis

Papua New Guinea 49.63%

New Caledonia 26.22%

Draw 24.14%

Papua New Guinea	Draw	New Caledonia
1-0 @ 9.87% 2-1 @ 9.57% 2-0 @ 8.29% 3-1 @ 5.36% 3-0 @ 4.64% 3-2 @ 3.09% 4-1 @ 2.25% 4-0 @ 1.95% 4-2 @ 1.3% Other @ 3.31% Total : 49.63%	1-1 @ 11.39% 0-0 @ 5.88% 2-2 @ 5.52% 3-3 @ 1.19% Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.14%	0-1 @ 6.79% 1-2 @ 6.58% 0-2 @ 3.92% 1-3 @ 2.53% 2-3 @ 2.13% 0-3 @ 1.51% Other @ 2.76% Total : 26.22%