World Cup

World Cup Qualifying - Oceania | Group Stage

Mar 24, 2022 at 5pm UK

New Zealand
7 - 1
New Caledonia

Greive (8', 45+2'), Rogerson (36' pen.), de Jong (75'), Tuiloma (81'), Wood (83', 89')
McCowatt (24')

FT(HT: 3-1)

Saiko (12')
Sansot (39'), Neoere (86'), Waya (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's World Cup Qualifying - Oceania clash between New Zealand and New Caledonia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

New Zealand

Last Six:

Last Game: Peru 1-0 New Zealand
Sunday, June 5 at 4.30pm in International Friendlies

Next Game: Oman vs. New Zealand
Thursday, June 9 at 7pm in International Friendlies

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Portugal	3	5	7
2	Mexico	3	2	7
3	Russia	3	0	3
4	New Zealand	3	-7	0

New Caledonia

Last Game: New Zealand 7-1 New Caledonia
Thursday, March 24 at 5pm in World Cup Qualifying - Oceania

We said: New Zealand 4-0 New Caledonia

New Caledonia have shown resilience to come close in their first two games, but Thursday presents a far bigger challenge, and we see them being outclassed. Hay's men have far more quality than their opponents and should have enough to finish with a resounding victory Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New Zealand win with a probability of 53.09%. A win for New Caledonia had a probability of 24.33% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a New Zealand win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.71%) and 2-0 (8.14%). The likeliest New Caledonia win was 1-2 (6.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.42%). The actual scoreline of 7-1 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New Zealand would win this match.

Result
New Zealand	Draw	New Caledonia
53.09%	22.59%	24.33%

Both teams to score 59.04%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.16%

40.84%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.77%

63.23%

New Zealand Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.58%

15.42%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.75%

44.25%

New Caledonia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.8%

30.2%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.64%

66.36%

Score Analysis

New Zealand 53.09%

New Caledonia 24.33%

Draw 22.58%

New Zealand	Draw	New Caledonia
2-1 @ 9.74% 1-0 @ 8.71% 2-0 @ 8.14% 3-1 @ 6.07% 3-0 @ 5.07% 3-2 @ 3.64% 4-1 @ 2.84% 4-0 @ 2.37% 4-2 @ 1.7% 5-1 @ 1.06% Other @ 3.76% Total : 53.09%	1-1 @ 10.42% 2-2 @ 5.83% 0-0 @ 4.66% 3-3 @ 1.45% Other @ 0.22% Total : 22.58%	1-2 @ 6.24% 0-1 @ 5.58% 0-2 @ 3.34% 1-3 @ 2.49% 2-3 @ 2.33% 0-3 @ 1.33% Other @ 3.02% Total : 24.33%