Friendlies 3

Mar 22, 2024 at 10pm UK

Stade de Marrakech

Mali
2 - 0
Mauritania

Sagnan (9'), Bilal Toure (12')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Preview

Data Analysis

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's friendly clash between Mali and Mauritania, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mali

All competitions

International Friendlies

Last Game: Mali 1-2 Ivory Coast
Saturday, February 3 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations

Current Group E Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Mali	3	2	5
2	South Africa	3	2	4
3	Namibia	3	-3	4
4	Tunisia	3	-1	2

Mauritania

All competitions

International Friendlies

Last Game: Cape Verde 1-0 Mauritania
Monday, January 29 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Angola	3	3	7
2	Burkina Faso	3	-1	4
3	Mauritania	3	-1	3
4	Algeria	3	-1	2

This friendly might end in a draw. Both teams will likely play cautiously, avoiding defeat even if it's just an exhibition game. Mali's missing their star player in Bissouma which hurts their offensive power, while Mauritania have an incentive to keep their unbeaten run going. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 66.61%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for Mauritania had a probability of 11.47%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.94%) and 3-0 (8.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.73%), while for a Mauritania win it was 0-1 (5.44%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 14.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mali would win this match.

Result
Mali	Draw	Mauritania
66.61% ( -0.18)	21.92% ( 0.11)	11.47% ( 0.08)

Both teams to score 36.73% (

-0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.24% (

-0.21)

57.76% (

0.21)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.5% (

-0.16)

78.5% (

0.17)

Mali Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.27% (

-0.13)

16.73% (

0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.35% (

-0.24)

46.65% (

0.25)

Mauritania Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

44.12% (

0.01)

55.89% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

11.6% (

88.4% (

-0)

Score Analysis

Mali 66.6%

Mauritania 11.47%

Draw 21.92%

Mali	Draw	Mauritania
1-0 @ 16.71% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 14.94% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 8.91% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 8.7% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 5.18% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 3.98% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 2.32% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 1.51% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 1.42% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.94% Total : 66.6%	1-1 @ 9.73% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 9.35% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 2.53% ( -0) Other @ 0.31% Total : 21.92%	0-1 @ 5.44% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 2.83% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 1.58% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.62% Total : 11.47%