Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations | Group Stage

Jan 20, 2024 at 5pm UK

Stade de Bouake

Mauritania
2 - 3
Angola

Bouna Amar (43'), Koita (58')
Keita (24'), Gassama (85')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Gelson (30', 50'), Gilberto (53')
Fortuna (90+6')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Africa Cup of Nations clash between Mauritania and Angola, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mauritania

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations

Last Game: Burkina Faso 1-0 Mauritania
Tuesday, January 16 at 2pm in Africa Cup of Nations

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Burkina Faso	1	1	3
2	Angola	1	0	1
3	Algeria	1	0	1
4	Mauritania	1	-1	0

Angola

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations

Last Game: Algeria 1-1 Angola
Monday, January 15 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Burkina Faso	1	1	3
2	Angola	1	0	1
3	Algeria	1	0	1
4	Mauritania	1	-1	0

We said: Mauritania 1-0 Angola

While Mauritania could still be disappointed with the defeat at the hands of Burkina Faso, their defensive compactness puts them in good stead against the Angolans, and they could secure a historic first win at the Africa Cup of Nations against the Palancas Negras. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Angola win with a probability of 40.58%. A win for Mauritania had a probability of 30.14% and a draw had a probability of 29.3%.

The most likely scoreline for an Angola win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.08%) and 1-2 (7.88%). The likeliest Mauritania win was 1-0 (11.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Angola would win this match.

Result
Mauritania	Draw	Angola
30.14% ( 0.04)	29.27% ( -0.01)	40.58% ( -0.03)

Both teams to score 43.18% (

0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

36.56% (

0.05)

63.43% (

-0.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

17.22% (

0.04)

82.78% (

-0.04)

Mauritania Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.29% (

0.05)

37.71% (

-0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.51% (

0.06)

74.48% (

-0.06)

Angola Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.31% (

0.01)

30.68% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.06% (

0.01)

66.93% (

-0.01)

Score Analysis

Mauritania 30.14%

Angola 40.58%

Draw 29.27%

Mauritania	Draw	Angola
1-0 @ 11.28% 2-1 @ 6.5% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 5.5% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 2.11% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 1.79% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.25% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.7% Total : 30.14%	1-1 @ 13.33% 0-0 @ 11.57% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 3.84% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.53% Total : 29.27%	0-1 @ 13.66% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 8.08% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 7.88% ( 0) 0-3 @ 3.18% ( -0) 1-3 @ 3.1% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.51% ( 0) 0-4 @ 0.94% ( -0) 1-4 @ 0.92% ( 0) Other @ 1.32% Total : 40.58%