MX23RW : Wednesday, December 25 18:12:14| >> :60:439:439:
Lebanon national football team
Friendlies 3
Sep 4, 2024 at 9.30am UK
Stadium Nasional Bukit Jalil
Tajikistan national football team

Lebanon
1 - 0
Tajikistan

Ayoub (13')
FT(HT: 1-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's friendly clash between Lebanon and Tajikistan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lebanon

All competitions
International Friendlies
Last Game: Lebanon 4-0 Bangladesh
Tuesday, June 11 at 5pm in World Cup Qualifying - Asia

Tajikistan

All competitions
International Friendlies
Last Game: Tajikistan 3-0 Pakistan
Tuesday, June 11 at 4pm in World Cup Qualifying - Asia

We said: Lebanon 1-2 Tajikistan

 There is little to separate these two nations and a closely-fought contest is set to be played out in Kuala Lumpur, but we are backing Tajikistan to edge this one as they did in their previous meeting seven months ago. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lebanon win with a probability of 42.98%. A win for Tajikistan had a probability of 30.73% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lebanon win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.86%) and 2-0 (7.66%). The likeliest Tajikistan win was 0-1 (8.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Lebanon in this match.

Result
LebanonDrawTajikistan
42.98% (0.16399999999999 0.16) 26.28% (-0.265 -0.27) 30.73% (0.099999999999998 0.1)
Both teams to score 51.91% (0.863 0.86)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.48% (1.09 1.09)52.52% (-1.089 -1.09)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.81% (0.925 0.93)74.19% (-0.926 -0.93)
Lebanon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.76% (0.566 0.57)24.24% (-0.567 -0.57)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
41.4% (0.794 0.79)58.6% (-0.795 -0.8)
Tajikistan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.52% (0.63 0.63)31.47% (-0.632 -0.63)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.14% (0.722 0.72)67.86% (-0.723 -0.72)
Score Analysis
    Lebanon 42.98%
    Tajikistan 30.73%
    Draw 26.27%
LebanonDrawTajikistan
1-0 @ 10.81% (-0.29 -0.29)
2-1 @ 8.86% (0.064 0.06)
2-0 @ 7.66% (-0.078 -0.08)
3-1 @ 4.18% (0.097 0.1)
3-0 @ 3.62% (0.023 0.02)
3-2 @ 2.42% (0.097 0.1)
4-1 @ 1.48% (0.058 0.06)
4-0 @ 1.28% (0.029 0.03)
Other @ 2.67%
Total : 42.98%
1-1 @ 12.49% (-0.12 -0.12)
0-0 @ 7.63% (-0.335 -0.34)
2-2 @ 5.12% (0.124 0.12)
3-3 @ 0.93% (0.053 0.05)
Other @ 0.1%
Total : 26.27%
0-1 @ 8.82% (-0.229 -0.23)
1-2 @ 7.23% (0.058999999999999 0.06)
0-2 @ 5.1% (-0.042 -0.04)
1-3 @ 2.78% (0.07 0.07)
2-3 @ 1.97% (0.082 0.08)
0-3 @ 1.97% (0.018 0.02)
Other @ 2.87%
Total : 30.73%

How you voted: Lebanon vs Tajikistan

Lebanon
42.4%
Draw
9.1%
Tajikistan
48.5%
33
Head to Head
Jan 22, 2024 3pm
Group Stage
Tajikistan
2-1
Lebanon
Umarbaev (80'), Khamrokulov (90+2')
Jurabaev (27'), Panshanbe (90+7'), Khayloev (90+12')
Jradi (47')
Matar (77'), Al Zain (90+4')
Al Zein (56')
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