Europa League

[monks data]

Europa League | Semi-Finals

Aug 17, 2020 at 8pm UK

Merkur Spiel-Arena

Inter Milan
5 - 0
Shakhtar

Martinez (19', 74'), D'Ambrosio (64'), Lukaku (78', 84')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Taison (58')

Preview: Inter Milan vs. Shakhtar Donetsk - prediction, team news, lineups

By Darren Plant, Senior Reporter | 15 August 2020

Sports Mole previews Monday's Europa League semi-final between Inter Milan and Shakhtar Donetsk, including team news and predicted lineups.

Inter Milan and Shakhtar Donetsk square off in Dusseldorf on Monday evening looking to earn a place in the Europa League final.

The winners of this contest will take on either Manchester United or Sevilla, who meet in the other last-four contest on Sunday.

Match preview

Inter Milan coach Antonio Conte pictured on September 14, 2019 © Reuters

With over half of their European fixtures having been against Spanish and German opposition this season, Inter have certainly not been provided with the easiest of times on the continent.

However, despite having been edged out by Barcelona and Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League, Antonio Conte's side have responded with victories over the likes of Getafe and Bayer Leverkusen in this competition.

After a late rally to claim the runners-up spot in Serie A, Conte is now two wins away from having had an outstanding first campaign at San Siro during what has been a period of transition for the club.

While Inter have undoubtedly benefitted from Romelu Lukaku's 31 goals, Conte has not been shy in making full use of a widely-talented squad, giving his side an extra edge heading into the closing stages of Serie A and this competition.

Nevertheless, despite justifiably being regarded as the marginal favourites ahead of Man United, I Nerazzurri cannot afford any complacency against a Shakhtar side which may relish their tag of underdogs.

Luis Castro has only been in charge of this group of players for 14 months, but the Portuguese has already guided Shakhtar to their best European effort since 2016.

Having agonisingly missed out on a place in the knockout stages of the Champions League, the Ukrainian giants have responded with entertaining victories over Benfica, Wolfsburg and Basel respectively.

Like Lukaku's role at Inter, Shakhtar have a talisman in Junior Moraes who is clear in the scoring charts with six strikes in Europe this campaign, with regular support coming from many of the club's creative players.

While recording back-to-back triumphs over Inter and either United or Sevilla would be regarded as a monumental shock, do not write off the Hirnyky after they found the back of the net on seven occasions in their last two outings.

Inter Milan Europa League form: WWWW
Inter Milan form (all competitions): DWWWWW

Shakhtar Donetsk Europa League form: WDWWW
Shakhtar Donetsk form (all competitions): WWWDWW

Team News

Alexis Sanchez in action for Inter Milan on August 1, 2020 © Reuters

Inter will have to make do without Alexis Sanchez after the Chile international suffered a muscular injury in training.

Matias Vecino also finds himself out of contention, putting Conte in a position where he may select the same starting XI.

That would see Milan Skriniar and Christian Eriksen remain among the replacements.

Castro will welcome Davit Khocholava back into his Shakhtar squad after the Georgian completed a ban.

However, after the manner of the win over Basel, Castro could opt to retain the same side.

Inter Milan possible starting lineup:
Handanovic; Godin, De Vrij, Bastoni; D'Ambrosio, Barella, Brozovic, Gagliardini, Young; Martinez, Lukaku

Shakhtar Donetsk possible starting lineup:
Pyatov; Dodo, Krivtsov, Bondar, Matvyenko; Antonio, Stepanenko; Marlos, Patrick, Taison; Moraes

SM words green background

We say: Inter Milan 3-1 Shakhtar Donetsk

While we expect plenty of action at both ends of the pitch on Monday night, Inter's extra bit of quality in defence and attack should combine to help them see off a Shakhtar outfit whose superb run in the competition may come to an end.

Top betting tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting that both teams will score (BTTS - yes) in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Inter Milan win with a probability of 47.66%. A win for Shakhtar Donetsk had a probability of 27.13% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Inter Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.35%) and 2-0 (8.4%). The likeliest Shakhtar Donetsk win was 0-1 (7.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.98%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Inter Milan would win this match.