Relegation-threatened Gil Vicente host Portuguese giants Porto at home in the Primeira Liga this weekend.
Just one point off the bottom of the table, Gil Vicente are fighting to keep their top-flight status intact in Portugal for next season.
Match preview
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Gil Vicente have managed just five victories and four draws in 2020-21, with a worrying record of 12 defeats.
Their last match ended in another loss - a 1-0 reverse at the hands of Tondela - to make it three defeats in their past four matches.
Manager Vitor Oliveira has chopped and changed his formation regularly but is yet to find the winning formula.
While Gil Vicente have struggled, Porto are flying high in third place, although they are a full 10 points below league leaders Sporting Lisbon.
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Porto have lost just two games all season and have proved very tough to beat both home and away.
The club are in the middle of a 15-game unbeaten run in the league and will be looking to bounce back after suffering a 3-2 cup defeat to Braga on Wednesday night.
Porto have enjoyed a fantastic record against Gil Vicente over the years that has seen them win 11 of their past 12 encounters.
Porto are yet to give up on the title, but they do have a date with Juventus in the Champions League approaching and may have one eye on that important clash.
However, victory in this game would keep their hopes of chasing down Sporting at the top alive, and manager Sergio Conceicao will no doubt have that drummed into the minds of his men before kickoff.
Gil Vicente Primeira Liga form: LWLLWL
Porto Primeira Liga form: WDDDWD
Porto form (all competitions): DDWWDL
Team News
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Gil Vicente will be without Miullen due to injury, and skipper Ruben Fernandes, who misses out through suspension.
With Miullen sidelined, Samuel Lino and Pedro Marques are in line to start up front.
Winger Lino has been one of Gil Vicente's best players this season, scoring five goals.
For Porto, Chancel Mbemba and Mouhamed Mbaye are both unavailable with injuries.
There is also doubt whether Ivan Marcano will be fit enough to play.
With the important Champions League tie to come, Conceicao may rest some of his senior players and give some younger charges a chance.
Gil Vicente possible starting lineup:
Denis; Paulingo, Nogueira, Rodrigao, Gomes; Mineiro, Goncalves, Pedrinho; Lourency, Lino, Fujimoto
Porto possible starting lineup:
Costa; Manafa, Leite, Pepe, Sarr; Grujic, Otavio, Uribe; Corona, Marega, Diaz
We say: Gil Vicente 0-2 Porto
Gil Vicente might be desperate but Porto have too much class, firepower and experience. While they may have one eye on European adventures, the title race is still in the balance meaning they will be keen to grab the full three points on offer.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 66.73%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 12.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (13.07%) and 1-2 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.64%), while for a Gil Vicente win it was 1-0 (4.88%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
