Yeni Malatyaspor are running out of time to save their season, currently sitting bottom of the Turkish Super Lig, 10 points away from safety and with the worst goal difference in the division.
On Saturday they travel to face 12th-placed Fatih Karagumruk, who are six points clear of the relegation zone, and could still even be looking up towards the top four, just seven points behind the Europa Conference League qualification spots.
Match preview
Fatih Karagumruk enter this match on the back of a heavy 5-0 defeat against Adana Demirspor, which has left Volkan Demirel's side unlikely of making a late charge to catch the top four.
The visitors on Saturday were not helped by winger Yann Karamoh being given his marching orders by the referee in the 32nd minute, when the game was still tied at 0-0.
That loss was Karagumruk's biggest defeat of the campaign, and so Demirel will have to ensure that his side respond in the correct way to bounce back and avoid being brought back into the fight for survival.
This weekend's hosts are expected to be more defensively resilient on Saturday, having conceded 10 fewer goals on their own patch compared to on their travels, and they are also likely to dominate the ball against a Yeni Malatyaspor side which has averaged just 41% possession in their fixtures.
Marius Sumudica's side have not tasted victory in the Super Lig since October, a run of 12 games without a win, but they did add another point on the board last time out against an in-form Besiktas.
Yeni were behind for a large portion of the second half last weekend but Adem Buyuk converted from the penalty spot six minutes from time to earn the home team a 1-1 draw.
Including this fixture, Sumudica's side have 16 more games to save their status in the Super Lig, but their form will have to turn around quickly and facing teams that are just six points above the relegation zone, like Karagumruk, seem like must-win matches for the 20th-placed side.
Having only scored 18 goals in 22 matches, while conceding 38, that gives Malatyaspor the worst goal difference in the league, so they are likely to have to find a way to score more goals to win matches, as they are unlikely to keep many clean sheets.
These two teams played out a seven-goal thriller in the reverse fixture, with Andrea Bertolacci, who is no longer at the club, scoring an 88th-minute winner for Fatih Karagumruk.
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Team News
Karamoh will serve his suspension after receiving a straight red card last time out, and he joins Jure Balkovec in missing this match through suspension, after the defender received his fourth yellow card of the season in the same match.
Kerim Frei has been absent due to injury since October, and he is sidelined along with forward Yannis Salibur, who will miss this encounter due to physical discomfort.
Aleksandar Pesic could come into the starting lineup for Fatih Karagumruk in place of Karamoh, while Caner Erkin is expected to fill the left-back role in Balkovec's suspension.
Buyuk and Benjamin Tetteh are expected to miss out for Yeni Malatyaspor due to injury, and the attacking pair will be a big miss for the visitors, having recorded 11 goals between them this season.
The visitors could line up in a 4-4-2 formation, with Nouha Dicko and Kenan Ozer leading the line, while Mustafa Eskihellac and Mounir Chouiar provide the width from midfield.
Fatih Karagumruk possible starting lineup:
Viviano; Erkin, Bekaroglu, Biraschi, Dursun; Bistrovic, Biglia; Pesic, Durmaz, Mor; Borini
Yeni Malatyaspor possible starting lineup:
Ozbir; Hafez, Wallace, Ciftpinar, Kaya; Chouiar, Donsah, Azubuike, Eskihellac; Dicko, Ozer
We say: Fatih Karagumruk 2-1 Yeni Malatyaspor
After conceding five last time out, there may be an opportunity for Yeni Malatyaspor to get on the scoresheet this weekend, but it is unlikely to be enough to claim any points.
Playing against the Super Lig's bottom side gives Karagumruk a good chance to bounce back from their heavy defeat, and in front of their own crowd they are expected to collect three points on Saturday.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fatih Karagumruk win with a probability of 60.34%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Yeni Malatyaspor had a probability of 16.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fatih Karagumruk win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.66%) and 2-1 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.77%), while for a Yeni Malatyaspor win it was 0-1 (5.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Fatih Karagumruk in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Fatih Karagumruk.
