We said: Ludogorets Razgrad 1-0 AZ Alkmaar
Securing a share of the spoils at Lazio last time out in the Europa League, Ludogorets should fancy their chances of recording their maiden win of the League Phase at home on Thursday night.
AZ Alkmaar come into this clash in good form, although we feel that a hostile atmosphere at Huvepharma Arena could tip the balance and lead to a narrow defeat for De Kaasboeren.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ludogorets Razgrad win with a probability of 38.05%. A win for AZ Alkmaar had a probability of 36.05% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ludogorets Razgrad win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.38%) and 2-0 (6.35%). The likeliest AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 (9.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.29%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.