Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Valmiera win with a probability of 64.22%. A draw had a probability of 19.8% and a win for Tre Penne had a probability of 16.01%.
The most likely scoreline for a Valmiera win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.9%) and 0-1 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.25%), while for a Tre Penne win it was 2-1 (4.48%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Valmiera would win this match.