Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shkendija win with a probability of 48.43%. A win for Valmiera had a probability of 28.42% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Shkendija win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.99%) and 2-0 (7.14%). The likeliest Valmiera win was 1-2 (6.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.55%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Shkendija would win this match.

Result
Shkendija	Draw	Valmiera
48.43% ( 0.02)	23.14% ( 0.01)	28.42% ( -0.02)

Both teams to score 61.03% (

-0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.05% (

-0.04)

39.95% (

0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

37.69% (

-0.04)

62.31% (

0.04)

Shkendija Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.25% (

-0.01)

16.75% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.33% (

-0.01)

46.67% (

0.02)

Valmiera Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.31% (

-0.03)

26.69% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.05% (

-0.05)

61.95% (

0.05)

Score Analysis

Shkendija 48.44%

Valmiera 28.42%

Draw 23.14%

Shkendija	Draw	Valmiera
2-1 @ 9.43% ( 0) 1-0 @ 7.99% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 7.14% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 5.62% 3-0 @ 4.25% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.71% ( -0) 4-1 @ 2.51% 4-0 @ 1.9% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.66% ( -0) Other @ 4.25% Total : 48.44%	1-1 @ 10.55% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.23% ( -0) 0-0 @ 4.47% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.63% ( -0) Other @ 0.27% Total : 23.14%	1-2 @ 6.97% ( -0) 0-1 @ 5.9% ( 0) 0-2 @ 3.9% ( -0) 1-3 @ 3.07% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.74% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.72% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.01% ( -0) 2-4 @ 0.91% ( -0) Other @ 2.21% Total : 28.42%