Despite these two sides competing in different divisions, the reality is that there is little to split them in terms of individual quality, meaning the hosts will fancy their chances of beginning this season's competition with a victory.
Stanley made it all the way to the semi-finals last time out, compared to Carlisle who finished rock-bottom of their group, so we will back the hosts to earn a narrow victory.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 44.05%. A win for Accrington Stanley had a probability of 30.42% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.06%) and 0-2 (7.56%). The likeliest Accrington Stanley win was 1-0 (8.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Accrington Stanley would win this match.
0.05) 
-0.3) 
