MX23RW : Friday, September 27 22:36:56| >> :600:854995:854995:
Accrington Stanley
EFL Trophy | Group Stage
Sep 5, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Wham Stadium
Carlisle United

Accrington
1 - 0
Carlisle

Whelan (86' og.)
Hills (36'), Coyle (52'), Martin (79'), Longelo-Mbule (88')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Mellish (20'), Back (39'), Ablade (54'), Robinson (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's EFL Trophy clash between Accrington Stanley and Carlisle United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Accrington Stanley

All competitions
Last Game: Notts County 3-1 Accrington
Saturday, September 2 at 3pm in League Two

Carlisle United

All competitions
Last Game: Carlisle 2-0 Shrewsbury
Saturday, September 2 at 3pm in League One

We said: Accrington Stanley 2-1 Carlisle United

 Despite these two sides competing in different divisions, the reality is that there is little to split them in terms of individual quality, meaning the hosts will fancy their chances of beginning this season's competition with a victory. Stanley made it all the way to the semi-finals last time out, compared to Carlisle who finished rock-bottom of their group, so we will back the hosts to earn a narrow victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 44.05%. A win for Accrington Stanley had a probability of 30.42% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.06%) and 0-2 (7.56%). The likeliest Accrington Stanley win was 1-0 (8.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Accrington Stanley would win this match.

Result
Accrington StanleyDrawCarlisle United
30.42% (0.047999999999998 0.05) 25.52% (0.248 0.25) 44.05% (-0.297 -0.3)
Both teams to score 54.18% (-0.784 -0.78)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
50.49% (-1.037 -1.04)49.51% (1.036 1.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
28.45% (-0.937 -0.94)71.54% (0.93599999999999 0.94)
Accrington Stanley Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.84% (-0.48999999999999 -0.49)30.16% (0.49 0.49)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.69% (-0.59200000000001 -0.59)66.31% (0.59100000000001 0.59)
Carlisle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.58% (-0.57600000000001 -0.58)22.42% (0.576 0.58)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.06% (-0.869 -0.87)55.94% (0.868 0.87)
Score Analysis
    Accrington Stanley 30.42%
    Carlisle United 44.05%
    Draw 25.51%
Accrington StanleyDrawCarlisle United
1-0 @ 8.11% (0.23 0.23)
2-1 @ 7.26% (-0.015 -0.01)
2-0 @ 4.86% (0.074 0.07)
3-1 @ 2.9% (-0.046 -0.05)
3-2 @ 2.17% (-0.072 -0.07)
3-0 @ 1.94% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 3.19%
Total : 30.42%
1-1 @ 12.11% (0.14 0.14)
0-0 @ 6.76% (0.281 0.28)
2-2 @ 5.43% (-0.106 -0.11)
3-3 @ 1.08% (-0.056 -0.06)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 25.51%
0-1 @ 10.11% (0.251 0.25)
1-2 @ 9.06% (-0.052 -0.05)
0-2 @ 7.56% (0.06 0.06)
1-3 @ 4.52% (-0.104 -0.1)
0-3 @ 3.77% (-0.036 -0.04)
2-3 @ 2.71% (-0.101 -0.1)
1-4 @ 1.69% (-0.069 -0.07)
0-4 @ 1.41% (-0.038 -0.04)
2-4 @ 1.01% (-0.056 -0.06)
Other @ 2.23%
Total : 44.05%

How you voted: Accrington vs Carlisle

Accrington Stanley
71.4%
Draw
19.0%
Carlisle United
9.5%
21
Head to Head
Dec 26, 2017 3pm
Carlisle
3-1
Accrington
Devitt (11'), Miller (78'), Grainger (83')
Kee (47' pen.)
Kee (65')
Sep 9, 2017 3pm
Accrington
3-0
Carlisle
Kee (17'), McConville (43', 57')

Miller (42')
Jan 21, 2017 3pm
Accrington
1-1
Carlisle
McCartan (21')
Kee (56'), McConville (62')
Pearson (12')
Beckles (20' og.)
Liddle (18'), Raynes (30')
Sep 3, 2016 3pm
Carlisle
1-1
Accrington
Adams (65')
Joyce (59'), Miller (80')
Kee (58')
Vyner (60'), McConville (72')
Feb 16, 2016 7.45pm
Accrington
1-1
Carlisle
Gornell (58')
Mingoia (6'), Buxton (22'), Halliday (52')
Buxton (54')
Hope (17')
McQueen (71'), Wyke (84')
Ibehre (1')
rhs 2.0
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