EFL Cup

EFL Cup | First Round

Aug 9, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Elland Road

Leeds
2 - 1
Shrewsbury

Gelhardt (52'), Struijk (58')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Perry (28')
Benning (7'), Winchester (50')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's EFL Cup clash between Leeds United and Shrewsbury Town, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Leeds United

All competitions

Last Game: Leeds 2-2 Cardiff
Sunday, August 6 at 2.30pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

Shrewsbury Town

All competitions

Last Game: Shrewsbury 1-0 Cheltenham
Saturday, August 5 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Leeds United 2-0 Shrewsbury Town

Even with the anticipated squad rotation, Leeds should have too much for their third-tier visitors on Wednesday and will expect to record a first competitive win under Farke. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 51.85%. A win for Shrewsbury Town had a probability of 24.73% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.57%) and 2-0 (8.45%). The likeliest Shrewsbury Town win was 1-2 (6.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Leeds United in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Leeds United.

Result
Leeds United	Draw	Shrewsbury Town
51.85% ( -0.39)	23.42% ( 0)	24.73% ( 0.38)

Both teams to score 56.64% (

0.4)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.78% (

0.34)

44.22% (

-0.34)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.4% (

0.33)

66.6% (

-0.33)

Leeds United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.92% (

-0.02)

17.08% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.73% (

-0.03)

47.26% (

0.02)

Shrewsbury Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.3% (

0.5)

31.7% (

-0.5)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.88% (

0.57)

68.11% (

-0.58)

Score Analysis

Leeds United 51.85%

Shrewsbury Town 24.73%

Draw 23.42%

Leeds United	Draw	Shrewsbury Town
2-1 @ 9.71% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 9.57% ( -0.15) 2-0 @ 8.45% ( -0.14) 3-1 @ 5.72% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 4.98% ( -0.08) 3-2 @ 3.29% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 2.53% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 2.2% ( -0.04) 4-2 @ 1.45% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.95% Total : 51.85%	1-1 @ 10.99% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.58% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 5.41% ( -0.08) 3-3 @ 1.26% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.17% Total : 23.42%	1-2 @ 6.32% ( 0.08) 0-1 @ 6.22% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 3.57% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 2.42% ( 0.06) 2-3 @ 2.14% ( 0.05) 0-3 @ 1.37% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.69% Total : 24.73%