Coppa Italia | Round of 16

Jan 3, 2024 at 8pm UK

Stadio Olimpico

Roma
2 - 1
Cremonese

Lukaku (77'), Dybala (85' pen.)
Llorente (34'), Celik (40'), Karsdorp (72')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Tsadjout (37')
Castagnetti (2'), Ghiglione (8'), Antov (9'), Ravanelli (16'), Bianchetti (78')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Coppa Italia clash between Roma and Cremonese, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Roma

All competitions

Last Game: Juventus 1-0 Roma
Saturday, December 30 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Cremonese

All competitions

Coppa Italia

Last Game: Palermo 3-2 Cremonese
Tuesday, December 26 at 5pm in Serie B

Goals
for

Top scorers

It may not be straightforward, but Roma can set up a tantalising quarter-final tie against Lazio by taking care of business in the Coppa Italia's last 16. Mourinho's men are well drilled, and the Giallorossi's lesser-used squad members are accustomed to playing regularly in the Europa League. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 53.71%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Cremonese had a probability of 22.31%.

The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.72%) and 2-0 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.39%), while for a Cremonese win it was 0-1 (6.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Roma in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Roma.

Result
Roma	Draw	Cremonese
53.71% ( -1.36)	23.97% ( 0.65)	22.31% ( 0.71)

Both teams to score 51.98% (

-1.1)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

50.98% (

-1.93)

49.01% (

1.93)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.9% (

-1.77)

71.09% (

1.77)

Roma Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.82% (

-1.21)

18.17% (

1.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.84% (

-2.11)

49.15% (

2.1)

Cremonese Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.52% (

-0.4)

36.47% (

0.4)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.74% (

-0.41)

73.25% (

0.4)

Score Analysis

Roma 53.71%

Cremonese 22.31%

Draw 23.96%

Roma	Draw	Cremonese
1-0 @ 11.3% ( 0.45) 2-1 @ 9.72% ( -0.1) 2-0 @ 9.64% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 5.53% ( -0.28) 3-0 @ 5.48% ( -0.22) 3-2 @ 2.79% ( -0.17) 4-1 @ 2.36% ( -0.22) 4-0 @ 2.34% ( -0.19) 4-2 @ 1.19% ( -0.13) Other @ 3.38% Total : 53.71%	1-1 @ 11.39% ( 0.33) 0-0 @ 6.63% ( 0.51) 2-2 @ 4.9% ( -0.1) 3-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.11% Total : 23.96%	0-1 @ 6.68% ( 0.44) 1-2 @ 5.75% ( 0.11) 0-2 @ 3.37% ( 0.19) 1-3 @ 1.93% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 1.65% ( -0.05) 0-3 @ 1.13% ( 0.05) Other @ 1.79% Total : 22.31%