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Copa Libertadores WWW header

Copa Libertadores
Club Libertad
Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
May 31, 2024 at 1am UK
Estadio Defensores del Chaco

Libertad
2 - 1
Nacional

Cardozo (29'), Silva (41')
Bareiro (38'), Cardozo (48'), Jacquet (70'), Merlini (72'), Cardozo (83')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Romero (13')
Gonzalez (40'), Bentancourt (72'), Pereyra (73')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Copa Libertadores clash between Club Libertad and Nacional, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Club Libertad

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: River Plate 2-0 Libertad
Wednesday, May 15 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Nacional

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Nacional 1-0 Danubio
Saturday, May 25 at 10pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

We said: Club Libertad 0-0 Nacional

 Nacional are already guaranteed a spot in the knockout phase, while it would take a lot for Libertad to miss out on the Sudamericana. With little to play for, we anticipate this will be a cagey affair between two sides that do not want to risk losing a key player to injury. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Club Libertad win with a probability of 41.65%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 31.95% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Club Libertad win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.71%) and 2-0 (7.38%). The likeliest Nacional win was 0-1 (9.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Club Libertad would win this match.

Result
Club LibertadDrawNacional
41.65% (0.099000000000004 0.1) 26.41% (0.285 0.29) 31.95% (-0.387 -0.39)
Both teams to score 52% (-1.045 -1.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.37% (-1.286 -1.29)52.63% (1.283 1.28)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.72% (-1.111 -1.11)74.28% (1.11 1.11)
Club Libertad Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.03% (-0.52500000000001 -0.53)24.97% (0.523 0.52)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.38% (-0.733 -0.73)59.62% (0.732 0.73)
Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.31% (-0.904 -0.9)30.69% (0.903 0.9)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.06% (-1.08 -1.08)66.94% (1.078 1.08)
Score Analysis
    Club Libertad 41.64%
    Nacional 31.95%
    Draw 26.41%
Club LibertadDrawNacional
1-0 @ 10.63% (0.38 0.38)
2-1 @ 8.71% (-0.036999999999999 -0.04)
2-0 @ 7.38% (0.151 0.15)
3-1 @ 4.03% (-0.079 -0.08)
3-0 @ 3.41% (0.019 0.02)
3-2 @ 2.38% (-0.108 -0.11)
4-1 @ 1.4% (-0.049 -0.05)
4-0 @ 1.18% (-0.011 -0.01)
Other @ 2.52%
Total : 41.64%
1-1 @ 12.56% (0.14 0.14)
0-0 @ 7.66% (0.381 0.38)
2-2 @ 5.15% (-0.153 -0.15)
3-3 @ 0.94% (-0.067 -0.07)
Other @ 0.1%
Total : 26.41%
0-1 @ 9.05% (0.233 0.23)
1-2 @ 7.42% (-0.105 -0.11)
0-2 @ 5.35% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
1-3 @ 2.92% (-0.116 -0.12)
0-3 @ 2.11% (-0.051 -0.05)
2-3 @ 2.03% (-0.113 -0.11)
Other @ 3.08%
Total : 31.95%

How you voted: Libertad vs Nacional

Club Libertad
41.2%
Draw
35.3%
Nacional
23.5%
17
Head to Head
Apr 3, 2024 11pm
Group Stage
Nacional
2-0
Libertad
Lozano (32'), Bentancourt (62')
Lozano (24')

Espinoza (71'), Bareiro (73')
rhs 2.0
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